Russia's economy could break down as early as 2026
The Russian economy is in the worst condition since the beginning of the full-scale war against Ukraine and may face a systemic crisis as early as 2026. This is discussed in the analytical material The Washington Post with reference to Western and Russian economic experts.
According to analysts, the Kremlin's financial model is based on high military spending and commodity revenues, rapidly losing stability.
Key problems of the Russian economy
Experts name the following as the main factors that worsen the situation:
Sharp drop in oil and gas revenues - In December, they could decline by almost 50%;
Record military spending - about $149 billion in just nine months, This puts enormous pressure on the budget;
Gazprom's financial crisis“ - After losing the European market, the company recorded $12.9bn in losses and was forced to increase its debts;
Deterioration of the socio-economic situation - Delays in salary payments, a drop in consumption and a decline in business activity are reported in the regions of the Russian Federation.
Views from inside the Kremlin
Despite the obvious economic difficulties, sources close to the Vladimir Putin, do not expect mass protests or a quick end to the war.
At the same time, even the Kremlin acknowledges this: 2026 could be a turning point - resources that made it possible to finance the war and maintain social stability, are practically exhausted.
Context.
Analysts emphasise that further tightening of sanctions, loss of export markets and rising domestic costs could make Russia it is impossible to wage war and support the economy at the same time. In this case, the financial system of the Russian Federation risks entering a deep crisis in the coming years.
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