War with Iran plays into Moscow's hands

A protracted war in the Middle East could hit Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin may become an indirect beneficiary of the war between the US and Iran, while Ukraine risks facing problems in the supply of Western weapons. This was written by Bloomberg.

Risks to military assistance to Ukraine

According to the publication, the prolongation of the conflict may force the US administration to Donald Trump more actively replenish their own arsenals.

In this case, some of the resources, including missiles for air defence systems, could be redirected from the Ukrainian direction to the needs of the United States itself.

Redistribution of intelligence resources

Bloomberg also draws attention to the possible redeployment of US intelligence capabilities to the Middle East.

We are talking about:

• aerial reconnaissance,

• satellite analytics,

• other high-tech capabilities.

These instruments have previously played a critical role in supporting Ukraine.

Energy factor

A separate risk is associated with the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. If its operation is disrupted for a long time or the energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf is affected, this could increase global demand for Russian oil and gas.

Analysts note that such a scenario could potentially partially offset the effect of sanctions against the Russian energy sector.

Context.

After the start of large-scale military operations against Iran, the United States and Europe are increasingly discussing the risk of the West's «scattered attention» between several crises at the same time.

The longer the conflict in the Middle East lasts, the more tangible indirect benefits for Moscow may become.