Dollar and euro exchange rates in Ukraine: what to expect and how Ukrainians are reacting
The dollar and euro remained highly valued on the Ukrainian currency market, with market participants focused on two factors: military risks and the NBU's ability to keep the exchange rate manageable thanks to record reserves. According to the NBU's official data, the dollar is worth around 43.14 UAH, euros 50.90 UAH.
Current picture: why the euro is more expensive than the dollar
The euro in Ukraine largely reflects not only the situation in the country, but also the EUR/USD ratio on global markets: when the euro strengthens against the dollar globally, it quickly «pulls up» the euro in hryvnia. This mechanism is also explained by economists in their end-of-winter market reviews.
What will have the biggest impact on the exchange rate in 2026
1) International financing and NBU reserves.
The National Bank reported that Ukraine's international reserves as of 1 February 2026 increased to $57.7 billion, updating the historical high. This enhances the regulator's ability to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations.
2) Military risks and attacks on the energy sector.
Any escalation increases demand for the currency as a «protective asset» and widens the spread between the cash and non-cash markets.
3) Imports, business activity and seasonality.
At the start of the year, import procurement and budget spending schedules traditionally change, which affects demand for foreign currency.
Experts' forecasts: the baseline scenario is a slow weakening of the hryvnia
Estimates of the ranges vary, but the tone of the forecasts is similar: no sharp jumps are expected, and we are talking about gradual changes.
Banker Taras Lesovyi (media commentary) forecasts a relatively calm market for February with dollar fluctuations of around 42.6-43.5 UAH, euros 49-51.5 UAH, warning of the unpredictability of military factors.
Economist Oleksandr Savchenko voiced a scenario of easing to 44-45 UAH/USD. in the middle of the year and potentially 46 UAH/USD. at the end of the year, depending on conditions.
In public materials and media reviews, ICU analysts name benchmarks for the end of 2026 around 44.3 UAH/USD. (along with similar estimates from other institutions).
In its macro forecast, Dragon Capital emphasises the criticality of sufficient external financing as a condition for stability in times of war.
Behaviour of Ukrainians: when they buy foreign currency and why
The NBU notes that households' demand for cash can increase sharply during periods of heightened risk. Based on data cited from the NBU Inflation Report, net demand for cash currency doubled to $2.2bn in Q4 2025.
At the same time, the general trend is not always «panic»: in 2025, net household demand for foreign currency is reported to be on the rise, based on NBU data, declined, This is attributed to the relative manageability of the market and expectations of partner assistance.
Cash is a separate marker of sentiment: in 2025, the amount of cash in circulation increased, and at the beginning of 2026, there were UAH 926.3 billion, The NBU reported.
What to expect next: three scenarios for the dollar and euro
Basic (most likely): Slow fluctuations within the forecast ranges, without sharp jumps, provided that international assistance is steadily received and reserves are maintained.
Risky: Sharp attacks on the energy sector or delays in financing can temporarily raise demand for currency and «unwind» the cash market.
Positive: greater predictability of external financing and improved expectations on the front line could reduce pressure on the hryvnia and narrow spreads.
Note: This is a journalistic review of the market, not individual financial advice; decisions about savings and exchange transactions should be made based on your own situation and risks.
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