The Kremlin is preparing a new phase of the war against Ukraine. Rising oil prices are filling the Russian budget, while Western resources are being dispersed due to the conflict with Iran. Russia may launch an offensive after the warming.
Kremlin gets additional resources
The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in oil prices. This allows Russia to generate more revenue, which replenishes its military budget.
Western resources are being distributed between Ukraine and the Middle East because of the conflict with Iran. The US and allied air defence stockpiles are declining, weakening support for Ukraine.
Plans for a new offensive
Associated Press reports that the Kremlin is preparing large-scale offensive along the frontline for over 1200 km. The main goal of the Russians is to completely capture the Donetsk region.
Attacks can be launched on several fronts at once. The offensive may be intensified after warming weather, when the soil dries up and equipment can move faster.
Situation at the frontline
Despite the difficult situation, Ukraine retains the initiative in certain areas. Counterattacks continue in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia regions, where Russians are trying to gain a foothold.
Context.
The West is forced to allocate military resources between Ukraine and the Middle East. This creates additional restrictions on supporting Ukraine amid the new phase of the war.
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