At the current pace, Russia will reach the borders of Donetsk region only in 2027

The pace of the Russian offensive remains «pedestrian»: according to ISW calculations, the occupiers can reach the borders of Donetsk region only in August 2017

The Russian army is not showing any real progress in Donetsk region, despite months of intense assaults and concentration of forces. This is stated in a new report Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to analysts, from July to the end of November 2025, the occupation forces advanced only by 0.12 km per day. ISW calls this pace «pedestrian» and completely contradicting the Kremlin's statements about an alleged «imminent breakthrough».

Pokrovske direction: Russia is stalling

The most difficult battles are taking place for Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, where the Russian command used elements of the of the two combined armies, but even this did not produce any noticeable results.

According to ISW:
- The Russian Federation has a foothold only on part of Pokrovsk;
- occupiers have not made progress in key areas, despite large-scale assaults;
- Attempts to put pressure on two fronts at the same time distribute resources and reduce the effectiveness of the offensive.

ISW forecast: August 2027

If the pace of advance remains the same, analysts predict that Russian troops will be able to reach the administrative boundaries of Donetsk region not earlier than August 2027.

ISW emphasises that even such calculations are theoretical - the Russian offensive may stop altogether due to lack of forces, logistical problems and increasing losses.

Kremlin narratives are crumbling

Analysts conclude that the slow pace of the fighting completely refutes the Russian thesis of an «inevitable capture of Donetsk region».

The report notes that:
- Russia has not achieved its operational goals;
- The occupiers« claims of great »success" are exaggerated;
- Ukrainian defences in the Pokrovske sector remain resilient despite the intensity of the fighting.