Fuel crisis in Russia escalates after Ukrainian drone strikes

After new UAV strikes on refineries in Russia, queues at petrol stations, supply limits and price increases are reported.

• Fuel shortages and petrol/diesel prices are on the rise in a number of Russian regions.

• Ukrainian UAVs hit several refineries and oil terminals, which worsened the shortage.

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• The Russian authorities impose sales limits and reorient supplies inside the country.

• Experts predict further pressure on the fuel market, especially in the border regions.

What happened

Following a series of nighttime attacks by Ukrainian drones on oil refineries and fuel storage and transshipment infrastructure in Russia, local media and social media users report new queues at petrol stations and sporadic shutdowns. In a number of regions, operators are temporarily restricting the sale of petrol and diesel to one person and reducing station opening hours.

Implications for the market

Analysts note that the outage of some refinery capacity and logistics disruptions make it difficult to meet seasonal demand. Due to the shortage, wholesale prices are rising, which is eventually reflected in retail price tags. The most sensitive areas are the border regions and southern regions of Russia, where demand is high and fuel supply is difficult.

Reaction of the Russian authorities

Russian officials publicly assure that the situation is «under control», but at the same time expand administrative measures: they impose limits on holiday travel, increase domestic supplies of large companies, adjust railway routes and temporarily reduce exports of certain types of fuel. Petrol station operators are urging drivers not to create a rush demand.

Why it matters

Fuel is a critical resource for military logistics, the agricultural sector and transport. Each successful attack on refineries or logistics hubs increases recovery costs, complicates the redistribution of fuel within Russia and puts pressure on prices. If the attacks continue, the shortage could become systemic rather than local.

Context.

In recent months, Ukraine has significantly increased the range and accuracy of UAV strikes on fuel infrastructure deep in Russia. Russia is trying to strengthen its air defences around refineries and terminals, but it is not able to completely close the vulnerabilities. The market is also experiencing a seasonal peak in consumption and scheduled maintenance at some enterprises, which is further squeezing supply.

What's next

• If the pace of the attacks continues, the Russian domestic market could see new sales limits and further price increases.

• The Russian government is likely to redirect resources from exports to domestic needs and expand rail transport of fuel.

• The situation will remain tense for at least several weeks, especially in regions with damaged infrastructure.