Ukraine needs twice as much funding as planned - IMF

Ukraine may need $$65bn in external financing - IMF revises estimates

According to Bloomberg and Reuters sources, Ukraine has agreed with the International Monetary Fund's estimate that it needs about 65 billion USD of foreign aid by the end of 2027. This is significantly more than the government's previous estimate of about $38 billion.

What we know so far

• Following the talks with the IMF mission, the Kyiv government was forced to raise its expectations for external financing.

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• The IMF is planning to offer a new lending programme for a period of 4 years, and its start may be discussed as early as autumn or at the end of the year.

• Although the total need is estimated at $$65bn, the official size of the new IMF loan has not yet been approved. Preliminary estimates are around $8bn.

• Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko said that there are already gaps in the 2026 budget: this year alone, there is a shortfall of $18.1 billion.

• The reason for the increase in forecasts is that the war is dragging on, and the costs of defence, logistics and social obligations remain huge.

• Only about a third of the $65bn has been secured so far - the rest remains “unsecured”.There are ideas to use frozen Russian assets or income from them as part of the funding for Ukraine.

Risks and key points

• Checking the numbers: Ukraine's Finance Ministry says it cannot yet officially confirm the $65bn estimate by Bloomberg.

• Budget deficit in 2026The government has already recorded a significant “hole” of $18.1 billion.

• Unsecured assistanceEven an agreed forecast does not guarantee that the relevant funds will be mobilised - much will depend on donors and decisions of the international community.

• Political and legal complications with Russian assetsThe mechanics of using frozen assets require complex coordination in order not to violate international law or Russia's rights of appeal.

• Dependence on IMF and partner conditionsThe new programme is likely to be associated with strict conditions for restructuring, fiscal discipline and transparency.

• Risk of strategic instabilityIf the forecasts have to be adjusted again, this could undermine the confidence of international lenders.