China is increasing its influence in Bangladesh

China expands presence in Bangladesh amid deteriorating relations with India

China is increasing its political and economic influence in the Bangladesh, In particular, in the context of deteriorating bilateral relations between Dhaka and New Delhi. This is happening on the eve of the national elections in Bangladesh scheduled for 12 February 2026, This creates favourable conditions for deepening China's influence in South Asia.

After the former prime minister of Bangladesh, known for her close ties with India, was ousted, a large part of the country's political spectrum has shown greater openness to cooperation with China. In this context, Beijing is strengthening its position by offering economic incentives and investment projects.

Beijing's economic and defence initiatives

China remains one of Bangladesh's key economic partners, with bilateral trade of around 18 billion USD billion annually. A significant part of this volume is accounted for by imports of Chinese goods.

In addition to infrastructure investments, Beijing is also developing defence cooperation with Dhaka. In particular, this includes an agreement to set up a production facility for unmanned aerial vehicles in Bangladesh, which will be located near the border with India. These steps demonstrate China's desire to strengthen its military and strategic presence in the region.

Tensions with India

In recent weeks, relations between Bangladesh and India have deteriorated, with reduced diplomatic contacts, restricted visa programmes, and tensions affecting even sporting events between the two countries. Some political forces in Dhaka believe that cooperation with New Delhi does not bring the expected benefits.

However, analysts emphasise that geographical proximity, mutual trade interests and security issues make cooperation with India important for Bangladesh, regardless of temporary political fluctuations.

Context.

The intensification of Chinese diplomacy in Bangladesh takes place against the backdrop of global competition for influence in the region. Beijing is seeking to strengthen its position in South Asia through economic, investment and defence initiatives, while also assessing political changes in individual countries as an opportunity to expand its influence.