{"id":17939,"date":"2026-05-01T13:17:52","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T10:17:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/?p=17939"},"modified":"2026-05-01T13:17:52","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T10:17:52","slug":"shho-bude-z-dolarom-ta-yevro-prognoz-ukrayina-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/analitika\/shho-bude-z-dolarom-ta-yevro-prognoz-ukrayina-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"The dollar and euro will surprise: what will happen to the exchange rate in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-section-id=\"1q9e0ki\" data-start=\"218\" data-end=\"282\">The dollar and euro exchange rates in Ukraine are once again in the spotlight amid new economic risks and analysts' forecasts. Experts warn that the hryvnia will continue to weaken, and the exchange rate may reach new levels in the near future.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1q9e0ki\" data-start=\"218\" data-end=\"282\">Exchange rate in 2026: what is changing and what Ukrainians should expect<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"284\" data-end=\"550\">In 2026, the dollar and euro exchange rate will remain one of the main economic topics for Ukrainians. In the context of war, dependence on international aid and global economic changes <a href=\"https:\/\/minfin.com.ua\/ua\/currency\/usd\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">foreign exchange market<\/a> demonstrates relative stability, but with a gradual upward trend.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"552\" data-end=\"691\">Analysts, bankers and international organisations agree on one thing: no sharp collapses are expected, but the hryvnia will continue to devalue slowly.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"693\" data-end=\"696\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"vorwsx\" data-start=\"698\" data-end=\"735\">Current situation: where the exchange rate is now<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"737\" data-end=\"763\">As of spring 2026:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"765\" data-end=\"861\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1va2o75\" data-start=\"765\" data-end=\"795\">dollar: <strong data-start=\"774\" data-end=\"793\">\u2248 UAH 43.5-44.5<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1av6m1d\" data-start=\"796\" data-end=\"861\">euros: <strong data-start=\"804\" data-end=\"821\">\u2248 UAH 51.2-52<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"863\" data-end=\"947\">Fluctuations remain under control thanks to policy <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/economics\/mizhnarodni-rezervy-ukrayiny-vpaly-52-mlrd\/\">NBU<\/a> and foreign exchange interventions.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"949\" data-end=\"952\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"8gubnp\" data-start=\"954\" data-end=\"1000\">USD and EUR exchange rate forecast (2026-2027)<\/h2>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"1wx7jal\" data-start=\"1002\" data-end=\"1023\">Table of forecasts<\/h3>\n<div class=\"TyagGW_tableContainer\">\n<div class=\"group TyagGW_tableWrapper flex flex-col-reverse w-fit\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<table class=\"w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)\" data-start=\"1025\" data-end=\"1402\">\n<thead data-start=\"1025\" data-end=\"1076\">\n<tr data-start=\"1025\" data-end=\"1076\">\n<th class=\"\" data-start=\"1025\" data-end=\"1035\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Source.<\/th>\n<th class=\"\" data-start=\"1035\" data-end=\"1050\" data-col-size=\"sm\">US dollar (2026)<\/th>\n<th class=\"\" data-start=\"1050\" data-end=\"1064\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Euro (2026)<\/th>\n<th class=\"\" data-start=\"1064\" data-end=\"1076\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Comment.<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody data-start=\"1125\" data-end=\"1402\">\n<tr data-start=\"1125\" data-end=\"1190\">\n<td data-start=\"1125\" data-end=\"1146\" data-col-size=\"sm\">State budget of Ukraine<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1146\" data-end=\"1158\">~45.7 UAH<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1158\" data-end=\"1170\">~49.4 UAH<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1170\" data-end=\"1190\">base case<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"1191\" data-end=\"1245\">\n<td data-start=\"1191\" data-end=\"1201\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Bankers<\/td>\n<td data-start=\"1201\" data-end=\"1213\" data-col-size=\"sm\">44-45 UAH<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1213\" data-end=\"1225\">50-52 UAH<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1225\" data-end=\"1245\">stable market<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"1246\" data-end=\"1304\">\n<td data-start=\"1246\" data-end=\"1263\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Dragon Capital<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1263\" data-end=\"1277\">up to UAH 45.5<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1277\" data-end=\"1281\">-<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1281\" data-end=\"1304\">moderate devaluation<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"1305\" data-end=\"1353\">\n<td data-start=\"1305\" data-end=\"1311\" data-col-size=\"sm\">IMF<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1311\" data-end=\"1323\">~48.6 UAH<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1323\" data-end=\"1327\">-<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1327\" data-end=\"1353\">long-term forecast<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"1354\" data-end=\"1402\">\n<td data-start=\"1354\" data-end=\"1360\" data-col-size=\"sm\">ICU<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1360\" data-end=\"1372\">~44.3 UAH<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1372\" data-end=\"1376\">-<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"1376\" data-end=\"1402\">controlled situation<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p data-start=\"1404\" data-end=\"1523\">Most forecasts converge in the range of <strong data-start=\"1449\" data-end=\"1483\">UAH 44-46 per dollar in 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"1525\" data-end=\"1528\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"8gsxc5\" data-start=\"1530\" data-end=\"1550\">What will happen to the euro<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1552\" data-end=\"1629\">The euro in Ukraine depends not only on the hryvnia, but also on its ratio to the dollar.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1631\" data-end=\"1784\">\n<li data-section-id=\"54eiao\" data-start=\"1631\" data-end=\"1703\">expected rate: <strong data-start=\"1650\" data-end=\"1663\">50-52 UAH<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"mgharz\" data-start=\"1704\" data-end=\"1784\">EUR\/USD: $1.14-1.19 per euro<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1786\" data-end=\"1800\">This means:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1801\" data-end=\"1863\">\n<li data-section-id=\"108qp3y\" data-start=\"1801\" data-end=\"1827\">the euro is more volatile<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"51cphu\" data-start=\"1828\" data-end=\"1863\">may grow faster than the dollar<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"1865\" data-end=\"1868\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"z7zpqj\" data-start=\"1870\" data-end=\"1895\">Why the hryvnia is weakening<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1897\" data-end=\"1913\">Key factors:<\/p>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"1y0hm4p\" data-start=\"1915\" data-end=\"1927\">1. War<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"1928\" data-end=\"1984\">\n<li data-section-id=\"2hwco3\" data-start=\"1928\" data-end=\"1955\">large budget expenditures<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"gskwz\" data-start=\"1956\" data-end=\"1984\">Imports outweigh exports<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"175jn5f\" data-start=\"1986\" data-end=\"2016\">2. Dependence on assistance<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2017\" data-end=\"2136\">\n<li data-section-id=\"14i344p\" data-start=\"2017\" data-end=\"2068\">foreign currency reserves are formed at the expense of partners<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"15sm573\" data-start=\"2069\" data-end=\"2136\">NBU reserves \u2248 $57-60 billion<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"1oed32n\" data-start=\"2138\" data-end=\"2153\">3. Inflation<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2154\" data-end=\"2185\">\n<li data-section-id=\"f29gpi\" data-start=\"2154\" data-end=\"2185\">rising prices put pressure on the exchange rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"2187\" data-end=\"2190\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1ns2u9b\" data-start=\"2192\" data-end=\"2221\">Course development scenarios<\/h2>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"wzxlew\" data-start=\"2223\" data-end=\"2243\">Optimistic<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2244\" data-end=\"2308\">\n<li data-section-id=\"gny37w\" data-start=\"2244\" data-end=\"2266\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/economics\/nato-vydilyt-ukrayini-60-mlrd-dopomohy\/\">stable assistance<\/a><\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"wjczaw\" data-start=\"2267\" data-end=\"2308\">NBU control<br data-start=\"2281\" data-end=\"2284\" \/>course: <strong data-start=\"2293\" data-end=\"2308\">43-44 UAH\/$<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"2310\" data-end=\"2313\" \/>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"zgsj44\" data-start=\"2315\" data-end=\"2345\">Basic (most realistic)<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2346\" data-end=\"2396\">\n<li data-section-id=\"u4sxcb\" data-start=\"2346\" data-end=\"2396\">gradual devaluation<br data-start=\"2369\" data-end=\"2372\" \/>course: <strong data-start=\"2381\" data-end=\"2396\">44-46 UAH\/$<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"2398\" data-end=\"2401\" \/>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"1b0rfsg\" data-start=\"2403\" data-end=\"2420\">Negative<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2421\" data-end=\"2496\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1lra3fw\" data-start=\"2421\" data-end=\"2444\">aid cuts<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1f2b3g6\" data-start=\"2445\" data-end=\"2496\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/viyna\/yevropa-hotuyetsja-do-tryvaloyi-vijny-v-ukrayini\/\">escalation of the war<\/a><br data-start=\"2462\" data-end=\"2465\" \/>course: <strong data-start=\"2474\" data-end=\"2496\">47-50 UAH\/$ and above<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"2498\" data-end=\"2501\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1w4rdf5\" data-start=\"2503\" data-end=\"2529\">What economists say<\/h2>\n<ul data-start=\"2531\" data-end=\"2629\">\n<li data-section-id=\"qqdrlc\" data-start=\"2531\" data-end=\"2564\">no sudden jumps are expected<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"tv2wn\" data-start=\"2565\" data-end=\"2597\">the exchange rate will \u201ccreep\u201d up<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1f96g1c\" data-start=\"2598\" data-end=\"2629\">The NBU will monitor the situation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2631\" data-end=\"2740\">By the end of 2026, the dollar could reach around <strong data-start=\"2680\" data-end=\"2690\">45 UAH<\/strong> without shocks<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2742\" data-end=\"2745\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1c1kmys\" data-start=\"2747\" data-end=\"2772\">What Ukrainians should do<\/h2>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"31nebm\" data-start=\"2774\" data-end=\"2803\">Should I buy foreign currency or not?<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2805\" data-end=\"2821\">In short:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2823\" data-end=\"2871\">\n<li data-section-id=\"v0eehq\" data-start=\"2823\" data-end=\"2847\">for preservation - yes<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"8cz2rc\" data-start=\"2848\" data-end=\"2871\">for speculation - no<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"2873\" data-end=\"2876\" \/>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"19lpoob\" data-start=\"2878\" data-end=\"2903\">The best strategy<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2905\" data-end=\"2990\">\n<li data-section-id=\"7nzyba\" data-start=\"2905\" data-end=\"2933\">keep part of it in hryvnia<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1fbhs8e\" data-start=\"2934\" data-end=\"2956\">part - in foreign currency<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"142m0ob\" data-start=\"2957\" data-end=\"2990\">do not invest everything in one currency<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"2992\" data-end=\"2995\" \/>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"1izkq2j\" data-start=\"2997\" data-end=\"3018\">Dollar or Euro?<\/h3>\n<div class=\"TyagGW_tableContainer\">\n<div class=\"group TyagGW_tableWrapper flex flex-col-reverse w-fit\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<table class=\"w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)\" data-start=\"3020\" data-end=\"3155\">\n<thead data-start=\"3020\" data-end=\"3047\">\n<tr data-start=\"3020\" data-end=\"3047\">\n<th class=\"\" data-start=\"3020\" data-end=\"3029\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Currency.<\/th>\n<th class=\"\" data-start=\"3029\" data-end=\"3037\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Pros.<\/th>\n<th class=\"\" data-start=\"3037\" data-end=\"3047\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Cons<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody data-start=\"3073\" data-end=\"3155\">\n<tr data-start=\"3073\" data-end=\"3111\">\n<td data-start=\"3073\" data-end=\"3081\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Dollar<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"3081\" data-end=\"3096\">stability<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"3096\" data-end=\"3111\">less growth<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr data-start=\"3112\" data-end=\"3155\">\n<td data-start=\"3112\" data-end=\"3119\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Euro<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"3119\" data-end=\"3137\">growth potential<\/td>\n<td data-col-size=\"sm\" data-start=\"3137\" data-end=\"3155\">instability<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr data-start=\"3157\" data-end=\"3160\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"rblr3i\" data-start=\"3162\" data-end=\"3182\">Main risks<\/h2>\n<ul data-start=\"3184\" data-end=\"3277\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1q7lg28\" data-start=\"3184\" data-end=\"3213\">Reduction of Western aid<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"aq4vnn\" data-start=\"3214\" data-end=\"3235\">escalation of the war<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1s7qzie\" data-start=\"3236\" data-end=\"3257\">energy crisis<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"vrt0jx\" data-start=\"3258\" data-end=\"3277\">global recession<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"3279\" data-end=\"3282\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1g7tlqd\" data-start=\"3284\" data-end=\"3298\">Conclusion.<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3300\" data-end=\"3391\">In 2026, Ukrainians should prepare for a gradual weakening of the hryvnia rather than a collapse.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3393\" data-end=\"3441\">\n<li data-section-id=\"lj0zn0\" data-start=\"3393\" data-end=\"3417\">dollar: <strong data-start=\"3402\" data-end=\"3415\">44-46 UAH<\/strong><\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1rnh9x1\" data-start=\"3418\" data-end=\"3441\">euros: <strong data-start=\"3426\" data-end=\"3439\">50-52 UAH<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3443\" data-end=\"3510\">The main trend is <strong data-start=\"3463\" data-end=\"3509\">controlled devaluation without sharp shocks<\/strong>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u041a\u0443\u0440\u0441 \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0430 \u0442\u0430 \u0454\u0432\u0440\u043e \u0432 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0456 \u0437\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0443 \u043e\u043f\u0438\u043d\u0438\u0432\u0441\u044f \u0432 \u0446\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0440\u0456 \u0443\u0432\u0430\u0433\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u0442\u043b\u0456 \u043d\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0445 \u0435\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0456\u0447\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u0440\u0438\u0437\u0438\u043a\u0456\u0432 \u0456 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0456\u0432 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0456\u0432. \u0415\u043a\u0441\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0442\u0438 \u043f\u043e\u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0436\u0430\u044e\u0442\u044c: \u0433\u0440\u0438\u0432\u043d\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432\u0436\u0438\u0442\u044c \u0441\u043b\u0430\u0431\u0448\u0430\u0442\u0438, \u0456 \u0432\u0436\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0439\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0436\u0447\u0438\u043c \u0447\u0430\u0441\u043e\u043c \u043a\u0443\u0440\u0441 \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435 \u0432\u0438\u0439\u0442\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043d\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0440\u0456\u0432\u043d\u0456. \u041a\u0443\u0440\u0441 \u0432\u0430\u043b\u044e\u0442 \u0443 2026 \u0440\u043e\u0446\u0456: \u0449\u043e \u0437\u043c\u0456\u043d\u044e\u0454\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u0456 \u0447\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0447\u0435\u043a\u0430\u0442\u0438 \u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0446\u044f\u043c \u0423 2026 \u0440\u043e\u0446\u0456 \u043a\u0443\u0440\u0441 \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0430 \u0442\u0430 \u0454\u0432\u0440\u043e \u0437\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0448\u0430\u0454\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456\u0454\u044e \u0437 [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":207433355,"featured_media":17940,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_description":"\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437 \u043a\u0443\u0440\u0441\u0443 \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0440\u0430 \u0442\u0430 \u0454\u0432\u0440\u043e \u0432 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0456 \u043d\u0430 2026 \u0440\u0456\u043a. \u0429\u043e \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435 \u0437 \u0433\u0440\u0438\u0432\u043d\u0435\u044e, \u0441\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0456\u0457, \u0442\u0430\u0431\u043b\u0438\u0446\u0456 \u0442\u0430 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