The new solar active region AR4446 has produced 16 C-class flares over the past day, leading the solar activity. This region, which has just appeared on the eastern edge of the solar disc, may have a more complex magnetic structure that will become visible in the coming days. Solar activity is expected to remain at a low to moderate level with the possibility of isolated M-class flares.<\/p>\n
The new active region AR4446, which appeared on the eastern edge of the solar disc, has produced 16 C-class flares over the past 24 hours. The strongest of these was C5.6, which occurred on 23 May at 21:57 UTC. AR4446 dominated the solar activity, producing most of the flares, while another active region, AR4441, approaching the western edge, produced 2 C-class flares.<\/p>\n
AR4446 has a beta magnetic configuration, indicating the complexity of its magnetic field. Due to its location near the edge of the disc, we expect further increases in activity when the region is fully in our view. AR4441, while retaining a beta-gamma configuration, is less effective in directing activity towards Earth due to its location.<\/p>\n
The Sun's activity is forecast to remain low with a 35% probability of isolated M-class flares in the coming days. AR4446 is considered to be the main source of potential activity, as its magnetic complexity may increase with full solar disk eclipse. The possibility of X-class flares is very small - about 5%, but not excluded.<\/p>\n
The Earth's magnetic field remains mostly calm with Kp values of 0-2, with no current geomagnetic storms. However, a negative-polarity coronal jet is expected to reach Earth on 26 May, which could trigger a minor G1 geomagnetic storm, likely causing aurorae to appear in areas where they are not usually seen, such as Seattle, Minneapolis and Edinburgh.<\/p>\n
Over the past few days, the Sun has demonstrated different levels of activity. For example, on 22 May, the active region AR4436 emitted an M2.4 flare that caused a slight radio occultation over Morocco. However, this flare was not directed at the Earth.<\/p>\n
The absence of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the recent period reduces the threat to navigation, communications and energy. However, experts emphasise the need to monitor the further development of AR4446, as its magnetic structure may cause new strong flares.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the back of the Sun is showing increased activity with the emergence of large groups of sunspots that have caused powerful magnetic storms in the past. This creates additional challenges for space weather forecasting and the protection of technological infrastructure on Earth.<\/p>\n
In general, scientists call for continued monitoring of solar activity, as changes in the Sun's magnetic field can significantly affect living conditions and technological systems on the planet.<\/p>\n