El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> between June and August 2026. There is a 90% chance that this climate phenomenon will continue until November. El Ni\u00f1o is caused by a weakening of the trade winds, which leads to an increase in water surface temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This leads to an increase in global temperatures and changes in the global rainfall regime.<\/p>\nPotential strength of the phenomenon and climate context<\/h2>\n
The WHO warns that this year's El Ni\u00f1o could be stronger than usual, with ocean surface temperatures rising by at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above average. This figure indicates the severity of the phenomenon, although some forecasts are still uncertain. At the same time, climate change is significantly exacerbating the effects of El Ni\u00f1o. Since the pre-industrial era, the average temperature of the Earth has risen by about 1.3 degrees Celsius, creating a higher base for extreme temperature fluctuations.<\/p>\n
Impact on weather conditions and risks for the regions<\/h2>\n
El Ni\u00f1o causes an uneven distribution of precipitation, with the southern part of South America and Central Asia expected to experience increased rainfall, while Central America and Australia may face drought. The phenomenon also intensifies heat waves, including in regions far from the Pacific Ocean, including Europe. As a result, agriculture, infrastructure and people's lives are affected.<\/p>\n
Implications for 2027 and beyond<\/h2>\n
The WHO warns that 2027 could be the hottest year on record due to a combination of a strong El Ni\u00f1o and climate change. The previous record was set in 2024, which was also an El Ni\u00f1o year. Rising temperatures and extreme weather events, such as the floods in Brazil in 2024, demonstrate the threat posed by the phenomenon. Experts say that such disasters could recur if the impact of climate change is not taken into account.<\/p>\n
Impact on energy and disaster preparedness<\/h2>\n
In Southern Africa, reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to El Ni\u00f1o complicates hydropower production and reduces yields. Experts warn of an increase in tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean due to warmer waters, which creates favourable conditions for their formation. This increases the risks for coastal countries and requires strengthening measures to prepare for extreme weather events.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o as an indicator of the future climate<\/h2>\n
Experts point out that this year's El Ni\u00f1o provides an insight into future climate conditions that may become commonplace in the coming years. The impact of the phenomenon on atmospheric circulation is unique and does not fully coincide with the effects of a simple global temperature change. Thus, El Ni\u00f1o allows us to \u00abtry out\u00bb weather conditions that could become the norm in a few years even without this phenomenon.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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