What would you do with a bonus of $80,000 \u2013 an amount more than four times the average annual salary in the country? Or with a full write-off of a $140,000 debt?<\/b><\/p>\n
These are precisely the questions being put to men in Russia today. The Russian army is aggressively advertising multi-million-rouble incentives for agreeing to fight against Ukraine. Billboards on the sides of roads and targeted adverts on social media promise young people a fortune \u2014 more than many Russians are able to earn in a lifetime. All of this is traditionally wrapped up in the slogan \u00abbecome a hero\u00bb or promises of fast-track Russian citizenship for foreigners.<\/p>\n
However, behind the fa\u00e7ade of these astronomical figures lies a serious systemic crisis. Even such financial injections are no longer sufficient to plug the gaps in the occupying forces\u2019 manpower.<\/p>\n
For a long time, the Kremlin\u2019s strategy has been based on the concept war of attrition<\/a>. Moscow had hoped to outlast Ukraine thanks to its vast demographic resources and extensive defence industry. Now, as the war enters its fifth year, Vladimir Putin\u2019s military coffers have even received a further boost due to rising oil prices triggered by the hostilities in Iran.<\/p>\n But money isn't everything.<\/p>\n \u00abRubles don\u2019t fight,\u00bb says Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Research Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The expert notes that this is the first war in Russian history in which the state is paying citizens en masse to take part in combat operations, rather than simply conscripting them to the front. And it is precisely this that is placing a colossal strain on the economy and exposing a shortage of personnel. According to analysts, in the first quarter, military recruitment in Russia fell by 20% compared with the same period last year, and figures continue to fall.<\/p>\n Russia is beginning to fall on the battlefield<\/a> more soldiers than it can recruit for money. If a potential recruit wasn\u2019t tempted by the huge signing bonus before, it is unlikely that he will change his mind now \u2014 especially against the backdrop of regular reports of appalling treatment by the command on the front line and the practice of bribing officers to avoid being sent on deliberately deadly \u00abmeat grinders\u00bb.<\/p>\n The Kremlin has already tapped into almost every possible \u00abalternative\u00bb source:<\/p>\n He sent tens of thousands of prisoners to the front.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n It has already drawn in three separate waves of North Korean troops.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n It is actively recruiting migrants.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n The authorities have recently launched yet another desperate measure: a promise to write off debts of up to $140,000 in full for men who sign a contract, thereby escaping criminal or financial liability for defaulting on their debts.<\/p>\n However, the depletion of the working-age population sent to the front has triggered a massive crisis in the Russian domestic market. Russia is facing the most severe labour shortage in its modern history. The defence sector is operating at full capacity across three shifts. It is impossible to increase arms production without new workers, and fierce competition for labour between factories and the civilian sector is fuelling inflation and crippling the economy.<\/p>\n According to Western intelligence estimates, hundreds of thousands of able-bodied men have left the country to avoid conscription. Money and factories can be found or built, but the state cannot simply order the birth rate to rise or instantly produce new adult men.<\/p>\n What options does the Kremlin have left?<\/b><\/p>\n Import labour on a larger scale from India, North Korea and African countries.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Take the radical and highly unpopular step of declaring the second wave of compulsory conscription<\/a> and close the borders to prevent men of conscription age from leaving the country.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n Maria Snigova<\/strong>, an analyst at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes that the Kremlin will try to \u00abturn the tables\u00bb by stepping up pressure on the Russian heartland, forcing students to sign up and recruiting foreigners. However, the financial burden of the war is becoming increasingly acute.<\/p>\n According to various estimates, the costs of personnel maintenance and recruitment eat up tens of billions of dollars every year \u2014 this amounts to around 9.51% of the Russian Federation\u2019s total federal budget or 21% of its GDP. The Russian economy is showing signs of stagnation, and in some sectors, recession. Businesses are closing en masse, and consumer confidence is falling.<\/p>\n Despite the rise in nominal wages due to staff shortages, Russians\u2019 purchasing power is failing to keep pace with real prices. This is fuelling underlying social discontent, which the regime is attempting to stifle by tightening the repressive apparatus.<\/p>\n Whilst Russia is trying to flood the front line with money and whatever manpower it has left, Ukraine is banking on technological modernisation<\/a>, particularly in the field of unmanned systems. Thanks to these innovations, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are inflicting significantly greater losses on the enemy than in the early stages of the war.<\/p>\n\n
A severe shortage of personnel and the threat of a new mobilisation<\/h2>\n
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The economic toll of war<\/h2>\n
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\n Economic indicator in the Russian Federation<\/strong><\/td>\n Current situation \/ Trend<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n \n Official inflation (June)<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n 5,52% (according to TASS)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Food prices<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n An increase of over 18% compared with January 2024<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Utility bills and taxes<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n The sharp rise in tariffs, the 21% increase in sales tax<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Everyday problems<\/b><\/span><\/td>\n Fuel shortages due to Ukrainian Armed Forces strikes on oil refineries and delays at airports<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Ukraine\u2019s technological advantage on the battlefield<\/h2>\n