{"id":23056,"date":"2026-06-24T21:43:48","date_gmt":"2026-06-24T18:43:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/?p=23056"},"modified":"2026-06-24T21:43:48","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T18:43:48","slug":"padinnia-tsin-na-naftu-zahrozhuie-rosii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/analitika\/padinnia-tsin-na-naftu-zahrozhuie-rosii\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil peak: global prices have returned to pre-war levels"},"content":{"rendered":"

The global oil market has completely eliminated the geopolitical risk premium that had been factored into prices since the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East. Against the backdrop of a rapid de-escalation and the stabilisation of shipping, commodity prices have plummeted, returning to the levels recorded before the escalation began.<\/p>\n

The main factor behind the fall in prices was the full resumption of safe traffic via Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> \u2014 a strategically important route through which around one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil is transported. The end of the active phase of the conflict and the reopening of key sea routes have allayed global traders\u2019 fears of potential supply disruptions from key exporters OPEC<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Text-based infographic: Market trends and the phasing out of the war premium<\/h2>\n

As at the end of June 2026, global prices for benchmark crude oil grades had seen the military premium completely disappear:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Oil price benchmark<\/th>\nThe height of the conflict<\/th>\nA pre-war landmark<\/th>\nCurrent price<\/th>\nOverall decline from the peak<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Brent Crude<\/strong> (international standard)<\/td>\n$92.00<\/td>\n$74.00<\/td>\n$73.22<\/strong><\/td>\n-20.4%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WTI Light Sweet<\/strong> (American oil)<\/td>\n$88.00<\/td>\n$70.50<\/td>\n$69.80<\/strong><\/td>\n-20.6%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Note: Current market prices show that prices have not merely halted their rise, but have fallen below pre-war averages due to seasonal market saturation and high production rates in non-OPEC+ countries.<\/em><\/p>\n

A domino effect for Russia\u2019s Urals: a double blow<\/h2>\n

For the Russian oil sector, which is already under severe pressure from sanctions and is grappling with the consequences of the blows to its own Oil refinery<\/a>, the fall in global prices is a critical challenge.<\/p>\n

The Russian budget for the current year has been drawn up on the basis of a benchmark price for Russian Urals crude in the region of $65\u201368 per barrel<\/strong>. However, the Russian blend is not sold at the Brent price \u2014 it is traded at a significant discount due to the toxicity of the raw material, the rising cost of freight for the \u00abshadow fleet\u00bb and the risk of secondary sanctions for buyers.<\/p>\n

At present, the average discount on Urals stands at around $13 per barrel<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The Kremlin\u2019s maths on oil losses:<\/h3>\n

Brent price $73.22 \u2013 Average discount $13.00 = Real Urals price $60.22<\/p>\n

At the current price of Brent, the market price of Russian oil automatically falls to around $60 per barrel<\/strong>. According to estimates by financial analysts, every dollar\u2019s fall in the average annual price of oil costs the Russian budget around $2 billion<\/strong> annual income. Thus, a fall in the price from the planned $65 to the current $60 represents a loss of almost $10 billion ($9.56 billion)<\/strong> budget revenue on an annualised basis.<\/p>\n

The sanctions ceiling is back in force<\/h2>\n

With the Urals price at ~$60, the countries have set G7<\/a> and the EU\u2019s \u00abprice cap\u00bb is once again becoming a practical tool for limiting the aggressor\u2019s revenues:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Loss of leverage:<\/strong> When global prices were high, Moscow was able to circumvent the $60 limit relatively easily by purchasing services outside Western jurisdictions. Now, the market price itself has pushed Urals down to that limit.<\/li>\n
  2. Pressure from Asian importers:<\/strong> The main buyers of Russian oil in Asia (India and China) now have strong grounds for demanding even bigger discounts from the Kremlin. They can openly state: \u00abAs the global market is falling and the risks of sanctions for trading in Russian oil remain high, we are only willing to purchase crude at a price of $53\u201355 per barrel\u00bb<\/em>.<\/li>\n
  3. Decrease in margin:<\/strong> At this price, the margin for Russian oil companies is approaching the cost of production and transport, which effectively prevents the Russian Ministry of Finance from collecting windfall profits for the military fund.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Implications for the Russian economy<\/h2>\n

    If the current low prices persist over the next quarter, the Kremlin will face a difficult choice:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • To accelerate the devaluation of the rouble:<\/strong> Artificially devalue the national currency in order to nominally fill the budget with \u00abcheap\u00bb roubles (which will inevitably fuel domestic inflation).<\/li>\n
    • To use up reserves:<\/strong> To start using up the remaining liquid assets of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) more actively.<\/li>\n
    • Budget cuts:<\/strong> To make substantial cuts to civil and social expenditure in order to maintain funding for the military-industrial complex.<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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