{"id":24285,"date":"2026-07-12T15:20:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-12T12:20:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/?p=24285"},"modified":"2026-07-12T15:23:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-12T12:23:15","slug":"super-el-nino-tsiny-produkty-2026-2028","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/economics\/super-el-nino-tsiny-produkty-2026-2028\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00abSuper\u00bb El Ni\u00f1o could cause food prices to surge by 2028"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"news-lead\">Analysts warn that a powerful El Ni\u00f1o climate cycle in 2026\u20132027 could trigger a sharp rise in global food prices, which is set to continue into 2028. Against a backdrop of already high food prices, exacerbated by the war in Iran, abnormal weather conditions are expected to affect harvests and supply chains, with low-income countries remaining particularly vulnerable.<\/p>\n<div class=\"news-summary-box\">\n<p><strong>Briefly about the main points<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>El Ni\u00f1o could push up food prices by 2028.<\/li>\n<li>Prices for soya, rice, sugar and palm oil are expected to rise.<\/li>\n<li>The impact of El Ni\u00f1o could add yet another price shock to prices that are already high due to the war in Iran.<\/li>\n<li>Low-income countries will be the hardest hit.<\/li>\n<li>It is estimated that, in the event of serious disruptions, prices for certain crops could rise by 10\u201350% or even more.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2>The powerful El Ni\u00f1o: why analysts are sounding the alarm<\/h2>\n<p>An exceptionally severe weather event is expected to develop in 2026\u20132027 <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/science-tech\/vooz-elis-ninyo-2026-prognoz\/\">El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>, which, according to NOAA estimates, has a 63% probability of the Pacific Ocean surface temperature exceeding the norm by 2\u00b0C. Analysts are calling this cycle a \u00absuper\u00bb or even \u00abGodzilla\u00bb El Ni\u00f1o, emphasising its potential strength.<\/p>\n<p>Such weather anomalies have already begun to affect crop yields: in India, some regions have received only 25% of their usual rainfall, whilst central India has received 50%, which could reduce the production of wheat, rice and sugar cane. Similar risks are being observed in other parts of the world, particularly in South-East Asia and South America.<\/p>\n<h2>Impact on global prices and supply chains<\/h2>\n<p>Analysts at Goldman Sachs note that the current El Ni\u00f1o cycle could push up global food prices by 15.8%. The European Central Bank had previously estimated a potential price rise of up to 9% for crops such as soya, maize and rice.<\/p>\n<p>A blow to harvests and logistical difficulties \u2013 such as low water levels in rivers and canals \u2013 could lead to supply delays and further price rises. Commodities with long supply chains, such as palm oil, coffee and cocoa, remain particularly vulnerable.<\/p>\n<h2>Regional impacts and at-risk groups<\/h2>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o alters rainfall and temperature patterns, creating regional \u00abwinners\u00bb and \u00ablosers\u00bb. Droughts are likely in South Africa and the northern part of South America, whilst floods are possible in southern Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.<\/p>\n<p>Low-income countries that have already been affected by <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/world\/ssha-udary-po-iran-08-07-2026\/\">wars in Iran<\/a>, may suffer the greatest losses due to rising prices and shortages of staple foods. At the same time, some regions may benefit from warmer conditions, but the overall outlook for global food security remains negative.<\/p>\n<h2>Which products are most at risk?<\/h2>\n<p>The sharpest price rises are likely to be seen for rice, palm oil, sugar and coffee. According to UniCredit\u2019s estimates, in the event of serious disruptions, prices for these crops could rise by 50\u2013100% or even more.<\/p>\n<p>The global agricultural system is entering the second half of 2026 with some buffers, but its margin for resilience is limited. Even minor disruptions to supply could trigger sharp price spikes, particularly against a backdrop of already high prices and shortages of fertilisers and energy sources.<\/p>\n<h2>Long-term risks and possible scenarios<\/h2>\n<p>Goldman Sachs forecasts that the full impact of El Ni\u00f1o on global food prices will only become apparent in the second half of 2028. This is due to varying growing and harvesting cycles, as well as delays in price shocks travelling through supply chains.<\/p>\n<p>UniCredit estimates that, in an extreme scenario, potential losses to global agriculture could reach $342 billion, or 14.3% of total production. Experts warn that even with buffers in place, the system remains vulnerable to further climate shocks.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysts predict that a strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2026\u201327 could push up global food prices by 2028, putting further pressure on the food sector.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":207433355,"featured_media":24284,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_description":"\u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437\u0443\u044e\u0442\u044c, \u0449\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0442\u0443\u0436\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0415\u043b\u044c-\u041d\u0456\u043d\u044c\u043e \u0443 2026-27 \u0440\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0445 \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435 \u043f\u0456\u0434\u0432\u0438\u0449\u0438\u0442\u0438 \u0441\u0432\u0456\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0446\u0456\u043d\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438 \u0434\u043e 2028 \u0440\u043e\u043a\u0443.","rank_math_title":"\u0421\u0443\u043f\u0435\u0440 \u0415\u043b\u044c-\u041d\u0456\u043d\u044c\u0439\u043e 2026: \u044f\u043a \u0432\u043f\u043b\u0438\u043d\u0435 \u043d\u0430 \u0441\u0432\u0456\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0446\u0456\u043d\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438","rank_math_focus_keyword":"\u0421\u0443\u043f\u0435\u0440 \u0415\u043b\u044c-\u041d\u0456\u043d\u044c\u0439\u043e,\u0415\u043b\u044c-\u041d\u0456\u043d\u044c\u0439\u043e,\u0446\u0456\u043d\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438,\u0441\u0432\u0456\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0446\u0456\u043d\u0438 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0438,\u0412\u043f\u043b\u0438\u0432 \u0415\u043b\u044c-\u041d\u0456\u043d\u044c\u0439\u043e","td_subtitle":"","subtitle":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[805618],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24285","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/207433355"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24285"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24285\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24286,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24285\/revisions\/24286"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}