Poland\u2019s Foreign Minister Rados\u0142aw Sikorski has stated that Russia may attempt to carry out an operation under a false flag using Ukrainian drones. In his view, such a scenario could provide a pretext for Moscow to retaliate against a NATO country or on its own territory. The Polish minister emphasised that this refers to the risk of provocation, rather than a direct attack by Russia on Poland.<\/p>\n
Briefly about the main points<\/strong><\/p>\n Sikorsky<\/strong> During a visit to the US, he said that Warsaw was anticipating a possible Russian provocation. He suggested that Russia might prepare Ukrainian drones and use them to attack a NATO member state or its own territory, and subsequently announce a response to such an attack.<\/p>\n The minister linked these concerns to previous statements Vladimir Putin<\/strong> on Russia\u2019s possible response in the event of an attack by a NATO member state. Sikorski urged the Kremlin not to allow such a scenario to unfold.<\/p>\n Sikorsky publicly raised the main warning about a possible false-flag operation as early as 25 June in an interview with CBS News. At the time, he spoke of the risk of a staged attack by Russia, which could provide a pretext for a strike against a NATO country.<\/p>\n On 7 July, in a comment to CNN, the Polish foreign minister explained that he was counting on such statements to have a deterrent effect. As an example, he cited the early release of US intelligence on the eve of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.<\/p>\n Sikorski\u2019s latest remarks thus continue a series of public signals from Warsaw to Moscow. The claim that Ukrainian drones in particular are being used is his own speculation regarding a possible scenario, rather than a report of a confirmed Russian plan.<\/p>\n On 12\u201313 July, Sikorsky reiterated that, in his view, Russia currently lacks the military resources for a direct the invasion of Poland<\/a>. At the same time, he believes that Moscow may carry out certain provocative actions against the country.<\/p>\n In early July, the media also reported that the US had allegedly warned Warsaw of a possible armed provocation aimed at testing NATO\u2019s resolve. There were no public statements from the White House or US intelligence setting out a specific scenario, timetable or any mention of drones.<\/p>\n Drawing a parallel between a possible provocation and the Gliwice incident of 1939, Sikorski emphasised that the Polish side wishes to demonstrate that it understands the possible rationale behind such actions.<\/p>\n\n
The Polish minister\u2019s assessment<\/h2>\n
Warnings had been issued before<\/h2>\n
Not a direct attack, but the risk of provocation<\/h2>\n
The context of NATO\u2019s commitments<\/h2>\n