Vladimir Putin has stated that the priority of the Russian budget for the next three years will be \u00abstrengthening defence\u00bb. He also expressed the hope that, during this period, Russia will achieve its objectives in the war against Ukraine, which the Kremlin refers to as a \u00abspecial military operation\u00bb. Russia\u2019s three-year federal budget covers the years 2026\u20132028.<\/p>\n
Briefly about the main points<\/strong><\/p>\n The federal budget approved in Russia covers the period 2026\u20132028. The Russian government has cited funding for \u00abdefence and security\u00bb, as well as support for war veterans and their families, as among its priorities.<\/p>\n According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 12.93 trillion roubles have been allocated under the \u00abnational defence\u00bb budget line for 2026. The budget for 2027 is set at 13.57 trillion roubles, and for 2028 at 13.05 trillion roubles. The budget also includes separate expenditure under the heading \u00abnational security and law enforcement\u00bb.<\/p>\n The highest nominal figure for defence expenditure in this plan is for 2027. However, budget estimates are subject to review, and the figures shown do not reflect the full extent of war-related expenditure.<\/p>\n Putin linked the three-year timeframe for strengthening defence to the expectation that Russia will be able to achieve its objectives in the war. He did not specify exactly what criteria the Kremlin would use to determine whether these objectives had been achieved.<\/p>\n This statement continues the Kremlin\u2019s public rhetoric rather than setting out a new objective: at the end of 2025, Putin also claimed that Russia would achieve its military objectives in Ukraine. The full-scale war launched by the Russian Federation in February 2022 will be in its fifth year in 2026.<\/p>\n Total federal budget expenditure is projected at 44.1 trillion roubles in 2026, 46.1 trillion in 2027 and 49.4 trillion in 2028. According to SIPRI\u2019s calculations, the defence budget alone for 2026 is almost 7.4 times higher than the planned expenditure on education \u2014 1.74 trillion roubles.<\/p>\n At the same time, the financing of such expenditure is taking place against a backdrop of budgetary risks. Formally, a deficit of 3.79 trillion roubles, or 1.6% of GDP, has been projected for 2026. Expenditure and the deficit may exceed the approved targets by more than 1 trillion roubles.<\/p>\n This suggests that the Kremlin intends to provide financial support for its military capabilities up to 2028. However, the budget cycle itself is no guarantee that the active phase of the war will last exactly three years: expenditure parameters may change, and defence spending covers more than just the direct costs of waging war.<\/p>\n A further increase in expenditure may require a review of budgetary parameters, additional borrowing or the reallocation of funds, should the deficit and expenditure grow faster than planned. This is a conclusion drawn from the available budgetary data, rather than a forecast regarding specific decisions by Moscow.<\/p>\n\n
Defence as a priority in the three-year plan<\/h2>\n
Declaration of the Aims of the War<\/h2>\n
Financial resources and pressure on the budget<\/h2>\n
What the budget estimate might change<\/h2>\n