Russia may be preparing a large-scale strike on Kyiv\u2019s energy infrastructure in the run-up to 24 August, Pavlyuchenko said, citing US intelligence reports. He suggested that part of the strategic stockpile of ballistic missiles might be deployed. However, there is no publicly available official statement from US intelligence agencies providing a forecast regarding the date, scale or scenario of such an attack.<\/p>\n
Briefly about the main points<\/strong><\/p>\n According to Pavlyuchenko, in order to maximise the impact, Russia could allegedly deploy not only its current stockpile of missiles but also part of its strategic reserve of ballistic weapons. He cited the likely objectives as causing maximum damage to the capital\u2019s power grid and exerting additional psychological pressure on the population.<\/p>\n No specific targets, number of missiles or details of a possible strike were mentioned. Publicly available information on the production or cooperation relating to the Russian missile system does not allow us to determine either the actual number of missiles remaining or the operational plans of the Russian command.<\/p>\n On 8 August, the President Volodymyr Zelenskyy<\/strong> stated that there are virtually no undamaged power stations left in Ukraine and not a single fully intact thermal power station. According to him, as a result of the Russian attacks, the country is entering next winter<\/a> under extremely difficult conditions.<\/p>\n The President also stated that during the attacks on 7\u20138 August, Russia used ballistic missiles and drones against infrastructure, railways, energy facilities and civilian targets. Twelve regions came under attack over the course of the day. Zelenskyy said the aim of these strikes was to make everyday life more difficult for Ukrainians.<\/p>\n A joint assessment by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank, the European Commission and the UN\u2019s RDNA5 has put the direct physical damage to the energy sector by the end of 2025 at $24.8 billion. Kyiv and the Kyiv region are listed among the areas where the damage is most concentrated.<\/p>\n Previously, experts had estimated that around ten \u00abIskander\u00bb missiles were being produced each month, whilst Russian factories expanded their production capacity during the full-scale war. An investigation into the Votkinsk plant indicated an increase in the production of \u00abIskander-M\u00bb missiles and the stockpiling of such missiles.<\/p>\n According to these estimates, by mid-2025 Russia could have had around 600 \u00abIskander-M\u00bb ballistic missiles. In December 2025, the Main Intelligence Directorate reported that around 50 enterprises were involved in the production of the 9M723 missile, and in June 2026 it indicated that production would continue at the Votkinsk plant.<\/p>\n\n
What are the limits of assessing a potential attack?<\/h2>\n
The power grid is heading into winter following widespread damage<\/h2>\n
The production of \u00abIskander\u00bb missiles poses a long-term threat<\/h2>\n