{"id":29848,"date":"2026-09-16T09:54:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T06:54:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/?p=29848"},"modified":"2026-09-16T09:54:54","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T06:54:54","slug":"biudzhet-2027-pdv-palne-podatok-posylky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/analitika\/biudzhet-2027-pdv-palne-podatok-posylky\/","title":{"rendered":"VAT 21% and higher-value parcels: what the government has included in the 2027 Budget"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"333\" data-end=\"568\">The draft State Budget of Ukraine for 2027 turned out to be not merely a budget for a country at war, but in fact <strong data-start=\"438\" data-end=\"480\">plan for the new tax burden<\/strong>. The Cabinet of Ministers has included revenue in its budget, some of which will only materialise following specific decisions by the Verkhovna Rada. Roksolana Pidlasa, Chair of the parliamentary Committee on Budgetary Matters, pointed out that <strong data-start=\"656\" data-end=\"759\">More than 131 billion hryvnia of planned revenue depends on amendments to the Tax Code that have not yet been adopted<\/strong>. Among the examples she cited were an increase in the standard VAT rate by 1 percentage point and a further increase in excise duties on fuel. Pidlasa herself assessed the likelihood of some of these decisions being implemented as low. The Ministry of Finance has officially confirmed that one of the possible sources of the 58.7 billion hryvnias is a VAT increase <strong data-start=\"1086\" data-end=\"1102\">from 20% to 21%<\/strong>, and a further 8.3 billion hryvnias is expected to be raised from an additional increase in fuel excise duty. The ministry specifically emphasises that both decisions require legislative changes.<\/p>\n<div class=\"news-summary-box\"><strong>Key points at a glance:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The government is considering raising VAT from 20% to 21%.<\/li>\n<li>Excise duties on fuel may also rise further.<\/li>\n<li>There are plans to impose VAT on parcels from abroad.<\/li>\n<li>Part of the budget revenue depends on legislation that has not yet been passed.<\/li>\n<li>The National Cashback scheme has not been specifically allocated funding in the draft budget for 2027.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"8l46r5\" data-start=\"1708\" data-end=\"1757\">The budget is already counting on VAT revenue that hasn\u2019t been collected yet<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1759\" data-end=\"2070\">The most far-reaching potential solution is \u2014 <strong data-start=\"1795\" data-end=\"1843\">an increase in the standard VAT rate from 20% to 21%<\/strong>. According to the government\u2019s estimates, this resource could amount to around <strong data-start=\"1902\" data-end=\"1919\">58.7 billion UAH<\/strong> and be used, in particular, to insure businesses against war risks and for other financial support schemes.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2072\" data-end=\"2381\">For the consumer, this does not mean that all goods will automatically become 1% more expensive. If a product costs 100 UAH excluding VAT, the final price is 120 UAH at a rate of 20%, and 121 UAH at a rate of 21%. In other words, the direct, mechanical effect of passing the tax on to the consumer in full is approximately <strong data-start=\"2343\" data-end=\"2380\">0.83% of the current closing price<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2383\" data-end=\"2710\">But the reality is more complex. <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/economics\/pidvyshchennia-pdv-v-ukraini-do-21\/\">VAT<\/a> It affects virtually the entire economy, so businesses may have to factor in higher costs for fuel, electricity, logistics, wages and imported components all at once. As a result, the overall price increase for individual goods may be either lower or higher than the simple mathematical effect of the rate change.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2712\" data-end=\"2997\">At the same time, it is important to distinguish between <strong data-start=\"2739\" data-end=\"2777\">draft budget and tax law<\/strong>. The State Budget Act itself cannot automatically change the VAT rate: for this to happen, Parliament must make separate amendments to the Tax Code. The Ministry of Finance states this explicitly in its budget presentation.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1lbqja4\" data-start=\"2999\" data-end=\"3048\">Fuel may face a further increase in excise duty<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3050\" data-end=\"3162\">The second measure likely to have a significant impact on the public is a further increase in excise duty on petrol, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3164\" data-end=\"3473\">The government expects to receive around <strong data-start=\"3207\" data-end=\"3223\">8.3 billion UAH<\/strong> and to channel resources towards protecting enterprises in the fuel sector from war-related risks. The Ministry of Finance confirms the possibility of a further increase in excise duty, although the government\u2019s statement does not specify any new rates.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3475\" data-end=\"3906\">At the same time, fuel prices are set to rise anyway due to the already approved phased alignment of Ukrainian excise duties with European standards. Specifically, under the current schedule, the excise duty on petrol is set to rise from \u20ac300.80 to \u20ac329.90 per 1,000 litres in 2027, on diesel from \u20ac253.80 to \u20ac291.90, and on liquefied petroleum gas \u2013 from approximately \u20ac198 to \u20ac223. A potential new decision will <strong data-start=\"3821\" data-end=\"3867\">in addition to the increase already planned<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3908\" data-end=\"4174\">It is here that a wider inflationary effect is possible. Fuel is a component of the cost of transport, food delivery, the agricultural sector, construction and many services. Therefore, an additional excise duty may not only affect the price per litre at petrol stations, but may also gradually be passed on to other goods.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1yqr6dv\" data-start=\"4176\" data-end=\"4227\">Parcels worth up to \u20ac150 may lose their tax exemption<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4229\" data-end=\"4363\">Another change will directly affect Ukrainians who order goods from <strong data-start=\"4301\" data-end=\"4362\">Temu, AliExpress, Amazon and other international marketplaces<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4365\" data-end=\"4623\">The Ministry of Finance is proposing to abolish the tax relief on <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/economics\/posylky-150-yevro-podatok\/\">VAT on commercial goods<\/a> in international postal and express consignments valued at up to \u20ac150. At present, it is this threshold that allows the majority of low-cost online purchases to be imported VAT-free.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4625\" data-end=\"5078\">According to the Ministry of Finance\u2019s model, VAT is to be paid <strong data-start=\"4666\" data-end=\"4700\">from the first euro of the goods\u2019 value<\/strong>, whilst the administration is to be shifted as far as possible to marketplaces or their intermediaries via a system similar to the European IOSS scheme. In other words, the buyer should see the tax included in the price when placing an order, without having to make a separate visit to customs. Private gifts between individuals worth up to \u20ac45 are to be exempt from this taxation.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5080\" data-end=\"5332\">The Ministry of Finance had previously estimated the fiscal impact of such a reform at approximately <strong data-start=\"5146\" data-end=\"5168\">10 billion hryvnia a year<\/strong>. Some studies have estimated the potential loss to the budget resulting from the current tax relief at 11.8 billion hryvnias, based on 2024 import figures.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5334\" data-end=\"5634\">For the buyer, the practical implication is simple: a product costing, say, \u20ac100, when subject to 20% VAT, may cost around \u20ac120 before delivery and other charges are taken into account. If, at the same time, the standard VAT rate is raised to 21%, the final taxation model will depend on the wording of the legislation passed by parliament.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1kbuz3p\" data-start=\"5636\" data-end=\"5680\">Banks may once again keep rates at 50%<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"5682\" data-end=\"5774\">Another major source of revenue is the extension of <strong data-start=\"5727\" data-end=\"5773\">a 50 per cent tax on banks\u2019 profits<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5776\" data-end=\"6047\">In 2026, this rate is already in force. The Verkhovna Rada\u2019s Tax Committee has backed Bill No. 15262, which proposes to extend it into 2027 and to prevent banks from reducing their taxable profit by offsetting it against losses from previous years.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6049\" data-end=\"6378\">There is a notable debate here between fiscal and monetary arguments. Supporters of a higher rate point to the banks\u2019 high profits during the war and the need to fund defence. According to various estimates, extending the rate could generate tens of billions of hryvnias in additional revenue.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6380\" data-end=\"6710\">At the same time, the National Bank warned that the regular use of a 50 per cent rate reduces banks\u2019 capital, diminishes their investment appeal and may limit their ability to lend to the economy. The NBU points out that the rate hike was initially presented as an exceptional and one-off measure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6712\" data-end=\"6919\">Consequently, for the average citizen, this tax is less noticeable than VAT or excise duty, but its indirect effects may be felt through interest rates, the availability of finance for businesses and the pace of investment recovery.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"tdn2ml\" data-start=\"6921\" data-end=\"6990\">The main risk to the budget is that part of the revenue currently exists only on paper<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"6992\" data-end=\"7050\">This is precisely where the key problem with the draft State Budget for 2027 lies.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"7052\" data-end=\"7348\">According to Pidlasa, <strong data-start=\"7073\" data-end=\"7155\">More than 131 billion hryvnia in revenue depends directly on parliamentary decisions that have not yet been taken<\/strong>. She also mentioned a further 52.5 billion hryvnias in connection with the extension of the increased tax on banks and the taxation of income generated via digital platforms.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"7350\" data-end=\"7582\">This means that parliament faces a difficult choice: either to support additional sources of revenue, or to look for other ways to balance the budget \u2014 by cutting certain expenditure, raising more funds or revising the deficit.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"7584\" data-end=\"7927\">This practice has already drawn criticism from the parliamentary Budget Committee during the consideration of the draft budget: the committee emphasised that including revenue from legislation that has not yet been passed creates a risk of revenue shortfalls and raises questions regarding the soundness of budget estimates.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"w936sl\" data-start=\"7929\" data-end=\"7980\">Why has the government opted for a pessimistic economic scenario?<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"7982\" data-end=\"8070\">Another important change is that the government has, in effect, <strong data-start=\"8020\" data-end=\"8069\">restructured the budget to cater for a protracted war<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"8072\" data-end=\"8399\">In its June macroeconomic forecast, the Cabinet of Ministers set out two scenarios. The optimistic scenario envisaged an improvement in the security situation and GDP growth of 4.5% in 2027. The stability scenario envisaged a continuation of challenging security conditions and growth of only <strong data-start=\"8296\" data-end=\"8304\">1,3%<\/strong>. It is the second scenario that has been used for the draft budget.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"8401\" data-end=\"8630\">According to this forecast, inflation at the end of 2027 is expected to be approximately <strong data-start=\"8473\" data-end=\"8479\">8%<\/strong>, whilst the average nominal wage is \u2014 <strong data-start=\"8513\" data-end=\"8527\">34,409 UAH<\/strong>. By way of comparison, the figure is expected to be around 30,100 UAH in 2026.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"8632\" data-end=\"8894\">In nominal terms, wages may rise by approximately 14%, but once inflation is taken into account, the increase in purchasing power will be significantly smaller. The government\u2019s own forecast estimates the real increase in the average wage at approximately <strong data-start=\"8845\" data-end=\"8853\">5,3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"8896\" data-end=\"9168\">This is a key point: whilst an increase in household incomes is expected, the government is discussing raising indirect taxes. VAT and excise duties differ from income tax in that they are effectively paid at the point of consumption; consequently, their impact is felt by broad sections of the population.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"pri0ct\" data-start=\"9170\" data-end=\"9227\">Why are new sources of revenue needed when growth is so weak?<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"9229\" data-end=\"9276\">The scale of the budget explains the government\u2019s fiscal rationale.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"9278\" data-end=\"9612\">State budget revenue for 2027 is projected at <strong data-start=\"9337\" data-end=\"9355\">5.648 trillion UAH<\/strong>, and expenditure \u2014 <strong data-start=\"9369\" data-end=\"9387\">7.272 trillion UAH<\/strong>. The government plans to allocate around <strong data-start=\"9452\" data-end=\"9470\">4.885 trillion UAH<\/strong>, or 43.8% of projected GDP. Ukraine will also need approximately <strong data-start=\"9535\" data-end=\"9571\">$52.6 billion in international aid<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"9614\" data-end=\"9752\">In other words, even following a significant increase in domestic tax revenue, the budget remains critically dependent on external funding.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"9754\" data-end=\"10012\">This is precisely why the government is seeking to raise tens of billions more from domestic sources: VAT provides a substantial and predictable source of revenue, excise duty is easy to administer, banks remain profitable, and the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce is creating a new tax base.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"10014\" data-end=\"10234\">However, the economic cost of such measures varies. VAT and fuel excise duty may add to inflationary pressure, the tax on parcels may increase the cost of low-cost imports, and the 50% tax on banks may potentially curb lending.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"r1ow6e\" data-start=\"10236\" data-end=\"10298\">\u00abNatskeshbek\u00bb is being phased out, but the Road Fund is being partially reinstated<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"10300\" data-end=\"10354\">The draft budget also includes changes to the structure of certain programmes.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"10356\" data-end=\"10642\">People's Deputy <strong>Yaroslav Zheleznyak<\/strong> said that <strong data-start=\"10404\" data-end=\"10495\">The draft does not provide for separate funding for the \u00abNational Cashback\u00bb programme for 2027<\/strong>. In the Ministry of Finance\u2019s official presentation, among the key business support programmes \u00ab<a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/suspilstvo\/national-keshbek-zymova-tysiacha\/\">National Cashback<\/a>\u00bb is also not specified.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"10644\" data-end=\"11026\">Instead, the government plans to partially resume <strong data-start=\"10685\" data-end=\"10712\">State Road Fund<\/strong> \u2014 at the 25% level of the complete mechanism. The total service life will be <strong data-start=\"10780\" data-end=\"10797\">52.8 billion UAH<\/strong>: 34.2 billion \u2014 for national roads, 10.1 billion \u2014 to repay debt obligations arising from previous road-related borrowings, and 8.5 billion \u2014 to local authorities for local roads and municipal streets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"11028\" data-end=\"11239\">This signifies a shift in budgetary priorities: after several years of channelling the bulk of road revenue towards other needs, a portion of the earmarked funding for infrastructure is beginning to be restored, though only partially for the time being.<\/p>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"tui696\" data-start=\"11241\" data-end=\"11274\">What does all this mean for a Ukrainian?<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"11276\" data-end=\"11437\">If parliament endorses the proposed tax package in a form close to the current plans, the most noticeable changes for households will be <strong data-start=\"11415\" data-end=\"11436\">three channels of influence<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"11439\" data-end=\"11677\">The first is VAT, which applies to a wide range of goods and services. The second is fuel, which could lead to price rises spilling over into logistics and production costs. The third is international online purchases, for which the usual exemption up to \u20ac150 may be abolished.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"11679\" data-end=\"12044\">However, not all of the changes will necessarily come into force. The draft budget is only just beginning its journey through parliament, and Pidlasa herself notes that at least some of the tax changes have little chance of being approved. MPs have until 1 October to submit proposals for the draft, after which the Budget Committee will prepare the document for its first reading.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"12046\" data-end=\"12188\">Therefore, the main conclusion to be drawn from the 2027 Budget so far is not that <strong data-start=\"12104\" data-end=\"12124\">VAT has already been set at 21%<\/strong> or that all parcels are already subject to tax. This has not yet become law.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"12190\" data-end=\"12500\">What is far more important is this: the government has shown that, <strong data-start=\"12229\" data-end=\"12308\">where exactly he sees the potential to fund the state should the war continue<\/strong> \u2014 broader taxation of consumption, imports, the banking sector and fuel. And it is likely that one of the main economic debates in the Verkhovna Rada this autumn will centre on these decisions.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0454\u043a\u0442 \u0414\u0435\u0440\u0436\u0430\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0431\u044e\u0434\u0436\u0435\u0442\u0443 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0438 \u043d\u0430 2027 \u0440\u0456\u043a \u0432\u0438\u044f\u0432\u0438\u0432\u0441\u044f \u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e \u043a\u043e\u0448\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0441\u043e\u043c \u0432\u043e\u044e\u044e\u0447\u043e\u0457 \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0438, \u0430 \u0439 \u0444\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u043e \u043f\u043b\u0430\u043d\u043e\u043c \u043d\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0442\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f. \u041a\u0430\u0431\u043c\u0456\u043d \u0437\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u0432 \u0434\u043e\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438, \u0447\u0430\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u044f\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u0437\u2019\u044f\u0432\u0438\u0442\u044c\u0441\u044f \u043b\u0438\u0448\u0435 \u043f\u0456\u0441\u043b\u044f \u043e\u043a\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0438\u0445 \u0440\u0456\u0448\u0435\u043d\u044c \u0412\u0435\u0440\u0445\u043e\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0457 \u0420\u0430\u0434\u0438. \u0413\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u043f\u0430\u0440\u043b\u0430\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0441\u044c\u043a\u043e\u0433\u043e \u041a\u043e\u043c\u0456\u0442\u0435\u0442\u0443 \u0437 \u043f\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043d\u044c \u0431\u044e\u0434\u0436\u0435\u0442\u0443 \u0420\u043e\u043a\u0441\u043e\u043b\u0430\u043d\u0430 \u041f\u0456\u0434\u043b\u0430\u0441\u0430 \u0437\u0432\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0443\u043b\u0430 \u0443\u0432\u0430\u0433\u0443, \u0449\u043e \u043f\u043e\u043d\u0430\u0434 131 \u043c\u043b\u0440\u0434 \u0433\u0440\u043d \u0437\u0430\u043f\u043b\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u043d\u0430\u0434\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0436\u0435\u043d\u044c \u0437\u0430\u043b\u0435\u0436\u0430\u0442\u044c \u0432\u0456\u0434 \u0449\u0435 \u043d\u0435 \u0443\u0445\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u0437\u043c\u0456\u043d [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":207433346,"featured_media":29849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_description":"\u0423 \u0411\u044e\u0434\u0436\u0435\u0442\u0456-2027 \u0437\u0430\u043a\u043b\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u043c\u043e\u0436\u043b\u0438\u0432\u0435 \u043f\u0456\u0434\u0432\u0438\u0449\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u041f\u0414\u0412 \u0434\u043e 21%, \u0430\u043a\u0446\u0438\u0437\u0456\u0432 \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0435 \u0442\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0442\u043e\u043a \u043d\u0430 \u043c\u0456\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0456 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0438\u043b\u043a\u0438. \u0420\u043e\u0437\u0431\u0438\u0440\u0430\u0454\u043c\u043e \u043d\u0430\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0438.","rank_math_title":"\u0411\u044e\u0434\u0436\u0435\u0442-2027: \u041f\u0414\u0412 21%, \u043f\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0435 \u0442\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0430\u0442\u043e\u043a \u043d\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0438\u043b\u043a\u0438","rank_math_focus_keyword":"\u0411\u044e\u0434\u0436\u0435\u0442-2027","td_subtitle":"","subtitle":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[806792],"tags":[806753],"class_list":["post-29848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analitika","tag-806753"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29848","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/207433346"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29848"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29848\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29850,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29848\/revisions\/29850"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29849"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29848"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29848"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29848"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}