Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that the intelligence services are assessing as a likely scenario hybrid attacks by Russia using drones and missiles against countries that support Ukraine, in particular Poland. Speaking in the Sejm on 17 September, he emphasised that this was a risk assessment, rather than information about a specific date or targets for an attack.<\/p>\n
Briefly about the main points<\/strong><\/p>\n According to Tuska<\/strong>, Russian drones or other munitions could enter the territory of one or more states on NATO\u2019s eastern flank, causing destruction, whilst Moscow would subsequently attempt to pass this off as an accident.<\/p>\n The Polish Prime Minister believes that such an approach could weaken unity amongst allies<\/a>, to test their willingness to act in unison and to create the impression that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty is \u00abmore theoretical than practical\u00bb.<\/p>\n Article 5 stipulates that an attack on one member of the Alliance is regarded as an attack on all. At the same time, each state determines the form of assistance in accordance with the treaty and its own procedures.<\/p>\n Tusk expects further intensive Russian strikes on major Ukrainian cities, energy infrastructure, railways and depots. He noted that attacks on energy infrastructure<\/a> have not ceased following reports of a possible halt to such strikes.<\/p>\n According to the Prime Minister\u2019s assessment, Russia is seeking to cause as much damage as possible to the Ukrainian economy and logistics. He highlighted the particular danger posed by attacks near the Polish-Ukrainian border, where disruptions could affect supply routes.<\/p>\n According to Tusk, Russia\u2019s strategy may be aimed at hindering supplies across Ukraine\u2019s western border. The risks relate to the infrastructure at the border crossings used to transport goods, humanitarian aid and other supplies; in winter, logistical problems could increase the pressure on Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n
The scenario may be designed to capitalise on doubts regarding NATO\u2019s response<\/h2>\n
Tusk described late autumn and winter as the most critical period<\/h2>\n
Poland is fortifying the border crossings through which supplies are being sent to Ukraine<\/h2>\n