{"id":31248,"date":"2026-09-28T17:59:47","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T14:59:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/?p=31248"},"modified":"2026-09-28T17:59:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T14:59:47","slug":"udary-rf-po-kyievu-prohnoz-hetmana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/analitika\/udary-rf-po-kyievu-prohnoz-hetmana\/","title":{"rendered":"The Hetman suggested that Russian attacks on Kyiv could intensify until spring 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"news-lead\">Russia may intensify its missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities until spring 2027, suggests military analyst Oleksiy Getman, a reserve major in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He links the possible attacks to the Kremlin\u2019s attempt to put pressure on the population and the authorities by disrupting the energy, heating, water supply and drainage systems. This is an expert forecast, not a confirmed schedule of attacks.<\/p>\n<div class=\"news-summary-box\">\n<p><strong>Briefly about the main points<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Hetman anticipates an intensification of Russian air strikes during the winter months.<\/li>\n<li>Urban life-support systems could become a likely target for pressure.<\/li>\n<li>An analyst has named Kyiv as one of the possible main targets.<\/li>\n<li>He links deterrence to the strengthening of Ukraine\u2019s air defence and missile capabilities.<\/li>\n<li>The idea that the intensity of the war will be lower in the spring of 2027 remains a mere assumption.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2>The Kremlin may be counting on exerting pressure this winter via the city\u2019s infrastructure<\/h2>\n<p>In the opinion of <strong>Hetman<\/strong>, the Russian leadership may try to make up for the lack of desired results on the front line <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/main-news\/ataka-sklady-atb-brovary\/\">attacks on civilian infrastructure<\/a>. Systems on which electricity, heating, water and drainage depend are particularly vulnerable in winter.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst believes that Kyiv could be one of the main targets of such pressure. In his view, the Kremlin\u2019s aim is to exacerbate public fatigue and persuade Ukrainians to support Russia\u2019s political demands. \u00abAll these whims of Putin\u2019s are elements of political pressure,\u00bb he said.<\/p>\n<p>The previous winter campaign highlighted the consequences of attacks on these systems. According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission, between October 2025 and March 2026, Russia carried out at least 423 attacks on electricity infrastructure and 74 strikes on heating infrastructure. This led to power cuts and prolonged disruptions to heating and hot water supplies, but does not confirm a plan for attacks next winter.<\/p>\n<h2>Strengthening air defence capabilities could limit Russia\u2019s ability to exert pressure<\/h2>\n<p>The Hetman attributes Russia\u2019s calculations to Ukraine\u2019s shortcomings <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/politics\/zelenskyi-tusk-dopomoha-ukrainy\/\">ballistic missile defence systems<\/a> and unmanned aerial vehicles. In his view, strengthening the defences of cities could reduce the possibility of using air strikes as a means of coercion.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst cited the development of Ukrainian ballistic weapons as another deterrent, mentioning the FP-7 and <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/main-news\/ukrainska-balistychna-raketa-fp-9\/\">FP-9<\/a>. At the same time, there are no confirmed timelines for their large-scale deployment to the armed forces, so these systems cannot yet be regarded as an existing large-scale capability.<\/p>\n<p>President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that, on 25 September, the General Staff reviewed the results of tests on interceptors designed to counter Russian \u00abShahed\u00bb drones and identified ways to strengthen defences. According to him, production of such systems is being ramped up.<\/p>\n<h2>A spring lull in the fighting is by no means guaranteed<\/h2>\n<p>The Hetman does not expect the war to end any time soon, but he does anticipate it entering a less intense phase in the spring of 2027. He attributes this possibility to the exhaustion of Russian forces and the difficulties they face in maintaining the current pace of their offensives.<\/p>\n<p>According to the analyst\u2019s assessment, Russia needs not only to recruit new military personnel, but also to train specialists to replace those lost among signal corps personnel and other specialists. Increasing the number of conscripts does not, in itself, resolve these manpower issues.<\/p>\n<p>Such a scenario remains a mere assumption: the future intensity of hostilities and air strikes will depend on the situation at the front, Russia\u2019s resources and Ukraine\u2019s ability to strengthen its defences, rather than on the calendar arrival of spring.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Russia may step up its missile and drone strikes on Kyiv until spring 2027, according to Hetman. Likely targets include electricity, heating and water supplies.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":207433355,"featured_media":31247,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_description":"\u0420\u043e\u0441\u0456\u044f \u043c\u043e\u0436\u0435 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0438\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438 \u0440\u0430\u043a\u0435\u0442\u043d\u043e-\u0434\u0440\u043e\u043d\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0438 \u043f\u043e \u041a\u0438\u0454\u0432\u0443 \u0434\u043e \u0432\u0435\u0441\u043d\u0438 2027 \u0440\u043e\u043a\u0443, \u0432\u0432\u0430\u0436\u0430\u0454 \u0413\u0435\u0442\u044c\u043c\u0430\u043d. \u0419\u043c\u043e\u0432\u0456\u0440\u043d\u0456 \u0446\u0456\u043b\u0456 \u2014 \u0441\u0432\u0456\u0442\u043b\u043e, \u0442\u0435\u043f\u043b\u043e \u0439 \u0432\u043e\u0434\u0430.","rank_math_title":"\u0423\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0438 \u0420\u0424 \u043f\u043e \u041a\u0438\u0454\u0432\u0443 \u0434\u043e \u0432\u0435\u0441\u043d\u0438 2027: \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0433\u043d\u043e\u0437 \u0413\u0435\u0442\u044c\u043c\u0430\u043d\u0430","rank_math_focus_keyword":"\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0438 \u0420\u0424 \u043f\u043e \u041a\u0438\u0454\u0432\u0443 \u0434\u043e \u0432\u0435\u0441\u043d\u0438 2027","td_subtitle":"","subtitle":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[806792],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analitika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/207433355"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31248"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31248\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31255,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31248\/revisions\/31255"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}