Estonia is moving towards a \u00abactive defence\u00bb strategy, which involves the continuous redeployment of forces closer to the Russian border and the development of long-range strike capabilities. One of the key steps is set to be the redeployment of the 1st Infantry Brigade from Tapa to J\u00f5hvi, whilst the rearmament programme is being bolstered by nine HIMARS, nine Chunmoo systems and a defence budget of \u20ac2.4 billion for 2026.<\/p>\n
Briefly about the main points<\/strong><\/p>\n According to ERR, the Estonian military has revised its approach to a potential war following an analysis of the fighting in Ukraine. Previously, the plan had envisaged a manoeuvrable defence deep within the country\u2019s territory whilst awaiting NATO reinforcements, whereas the new model emphasises engaging the enemy near the border and preventing the loss of significant territory.<\/p>\n Under this approach, the 1st Infantry Brigade is to be continuously redeployed from Tapa to J\u00f5hvi. Tapa is situated approximately 130 km from the Russian border, whilst J\u00f5hvi is approximately 50 km away. This refers to a planned process, rather than the completion of the redeployment of all the brigade\u2019s units.<\/p>\n Commander of the 1st Infantry Brigade, Colonel Tarmo Kundla<\/strong>, as reported by ERR, stated that Estonia must \u00abstart at the border\u00bb and win the initial battles. This explains the rationale behind the command\u2019s new approach, rather than the full text of the military doctrine, which has not been published separately.<\/p>\n Estonia has already received six American HIMARS systems and has signed a contract for a further three, bringing the total to nine. The Estonian Defence Investment Centre has reported that the system is capable of delivering high-precision strikes at ranges of over 300 km, depending on the type of munitions.<\/p>\n The Estonian Ministry of Defence has also confirmed the procurement of nine South Korean Chunmoo rocket systems: six were contracted for at the end of 2025, and a further three in May 2026. The Chunmoo has a range of approximately 300 km.<\/p>\n According to the FT, the Estonian military leadership regards these systems as a capability to strike, in the event of an attack, not only enemy forces near the border but also military infrastructure behind the lines on the enemy\u2019s territory. ERR notes that the distance from Estonian territory to St Petersburg is approximately 260 km; this is a geographical context rather than the designation of a specific target.<\/p>\n Estonia\u2019s defence budget for 2026 stands at \u20ac2.4 billion, or 5.4% of GDP, according to the Estonian Ministry of Defence. This is 42% more than the previous figure of \u20ac1.7 billion.<\/p>\n \u20ac1.27 billion has been earmarked for the procurement of weapons and military equipment \u2014 more than half of total defence expenditure. A further \u20ac3.4 billion is planned to be allocated specifically to ammunition between 2025 and 2029.<\/p>\n At the same time, Estonia is strengthening its air defences. The country\u2019s Ministry of Defence has stated that the first IRIS-T medium-range systems are expected in 2026.<\/p>\n\n
From manoeuvrable defence to border combat<\/h2>\n
Long-range multiple launch rocket systems as part of the re-equipment programme<\/h2>\n
\u20ac2.4 billion has been allocated to defence<\/h2>\n
The Narva Project and risk assessment<\/h2>\n