{"id":32646,"date":"2026-10-10T10:41:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-10T07:41:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/?p=32646"},"modified":"2026-10-10T10:41:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T07:41:10","slug":"svitova-palyvna-kryza-2026-dyzel-tsiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/analitika\/svitova-palyvna-kryza-2026-dyzel-tsiny\/","title":{"rendered":"The world is running out of oil reserves: why fuel prices are rising and what lies ahead for Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The global fuel market is experiencing one of the most acute crises of recent years. Due to the war in the Middle East, restrictions on the supply of petroleum products and damage to oil refining facilities in a number of countries, the price of diesel is rising significantly faster than that of petrol. In the US, the average retail price has exceeded $6 per gallon, and in California it has reached $8, whilst global oil reserves have fallen by hundreds of millions of barrels. Governments are attempting to curb price rises through strategic reserves and new trade agreements, but the main problem remains unresolved: the global market is experiencing a shortage of refined fuel, not just crude oil. UkrMedia has analysed official data from energy agencies to identify the causes of the crisis, its impact on consumer goods, transport and the global economy, as well as the potential consequences for Ukraine.<\/p>\n<div class=\"news-summary-box\">\n<p><strong>Briefly about the main points<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Global diesel supplies have fallen as a result of the wars.<\/li>\n<li>In the US, fuel prices have risen by almost 70% over the past year.<\/li>\n<li>The G7 countries are preparing to release reserves.<\/li>\n<li>High prices drive up transport and production costs.<\/li>\n<li>Ukraine is also feeling the pressure from the global fuel market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Diesel has become one of the main sources of fresh inflationary pressure<\/h2>\n<p>Growth <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/analitika\/ormuzka-protoka-shcho-tse-chomu-vazhlyva\/\">oil prices<\/a> does not in itself explain the scale of the current fuel crisis. By 2026, the shortage of certain petroleum products \u2013 particularly diesel fuel, on which freight transport, agriculture, construction and industry depend \u2013 had become a far more acute problem.<\/p>\n<p>The situation in the United States is a case in point. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), at the start of October the average retail price of diesel stood at $6.199 per gallon, compared with $3.711 approximately a year earlier. This represents an increase of 67%. Over the same period, petrol prices rose by approximately 39%.<\/p>\n<h3>How have fuel prices changed in the US?<\/h3>\n<div>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>Indicator.<\/th>\n<th>October 2025<\/th>\n<th>October 2026<\/th>\n<th>Change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Regular petrol<\/td>\n<td>$3,12<\/td>\n<td>$4,35<\/td>\n<td>+39%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Diesel fuel<\/td>\n<td>$3,71<\/td>\n<td>$6,20<\/td>\n<td>+67%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>Dollars per US gallon. Comparison of corresponding weeks, EIA, as at 5 October 2026.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 1.<\/strong> A comparison of fuel prices in the US.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32647\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32647\" style=\"width: 701px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-32647\" src=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200-300x169.png\" alt=\"A comparison of fuel prices in the United States of America\" width=\"701\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200-18x10.png 18w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200-747x420.png 747w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200-1068x601.png 1068w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/diesel_vs_gasoline_us_1200.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 701px) 100vw, 701px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32647\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A comparison of fuel prices in the US.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>On 9 October, the AAA motoring association had already estimated the average <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/economics\/diesel-prices-us-eu-records\/\">the price of diesel in the US<\/a> at approximately $6.28 per gallon. In California, the EIA\u2019s weekly figure for 5 October exceeded $8. High prices are hitting freight hauliers, farms and businesses that consume significant volumes of fuel particularly hard.<\/p>\n<p>The economic impact is not limited to the transport sector. Diesel is used at every stage of the production and delivery of goods \u2014 from the operation of agricultural machinery to the transport of finished products to shops. When fuel costs rise, businesses are forced either to reduce their profit margins or to gradually pass on some of the additional costs to end-consumer prices.<\/p>\n<p>Consequently, higher diesel prices create the conditions for wider-ranging inflationary pressures, even if the price of crude oil stabilises temporarily.<\/p>\n<h2>Why the shortage has arisen: the problem is no longer just about oil<\/h2>\n<p>To understand the causes of the crisis, it is necessary to distinguish between two markets: crude oil and refined petroleum products. Extracted crude oil is not yet diesel fuel. Its conversion requires oil refineries, the appropriate equipment, energy, logistical infrastructure and access to sales markets.<\/p>\n<p>Throughout 2026, the global oil refining system faced a number of shocks simultaneously. The war in the Middle East restricted supplies of crude oil and refined fuel from the Gulf states. Strikes on Russian refineries reduced Russia\u2019s capacity to produce and export petroleum products. Attacks on tankers, rising insurance costs and the need to reroute shipments created further pressure.<\/p>\n<p>According to the International Energy Agency\u2019s September estimates, global oil refineries processed approximately 81.4 million barrels per day in August. This is 4.2 million barrels less than in the same period last year. At the same time, refining margins in the Atlantic Basin reached record levels, largely due to a shortage of diesel.<\/p>\n<p>A situation arises in which refiners can generate high profits from every additional barrel of finished fuel, yet are physically unable to scale up production quickly to the required level. Building new refineries takes years, whilst the restoration of damaged facilities depends on the extent of the damage and the availability of equipment.<\/p>\n<h3>Five factors that determine the price of diesel<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>The price of crude oil. The basic raw material for the production of fuel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Refining. Available refinery capacity and diesel production margins.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>International logistics. Freight, tanker insurance, routes and port services.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Taxes and exchange rates. Excise duties, VAT and the cost of imports in the national currency.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Demand. Freight transport, the agricultural sector, industry and heating.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It is precisely the simultaneous intensification of several of these factors that makes the crisis particularly challenging for governments. Reducing a single tax or making a one-off increase in supplies will not necessarily eliminate the shortfall arising elsewhere in the global supply chain.<\/p>\n<h2>The Persian Gulf has lost a significant proportion of its diesel exports<\/h2>\n<p>One of the most significant factors was the disruption to maritime supplies from <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/world\/sua-udaru-iranu-vzayemni-ataki\/\">Persian Gulf<\/a>. Before the current conflict began, the region was one of the largest suppliers of diesel fuel and other middle distillates to the international market.<\/p>\n<p>According to IEA estimates, net exports of diesel and gas oil from the Gulf states in August 2026 stood at just 390,000 barrels per day \u2014 slightly more than a quarter of the pre-war level.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Figure 2.<\/strong> A reduction in diesel supplies from the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-32648\" src=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200-300x169.png\" alt=\"Diesel engine export, schedule\" width=\"701\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200-18x10.png 18w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200-747x420.png 747w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200-1068x601.png 1068w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gulf_diesel_exports_1200.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 701px) 100vw, 701px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>This indicator is particularly important because petroleum products cannot always be replaced promptly with supplies from another region. Redirecting tankers takes extra time, and refineries in Europe, Asia and the Americas do not have unlimited production capacity.<\/p>\n<p>The IEA\u2019s September report noted that total net exports of diesel and gas oil from the Persian Gulf and Russia in August were approximately 1.6 million barrels per day lower than in February. Before the escalation of conflicts, these regions accounted for nearly 45% of global seaborne trade in these petroleum products.<\/p>\n<p>So, the problem lies not only in the total amount of diesel available worldwide, but also in where exactly it is produced and whether it can be delivered to consumers when needed.<\/p>\n<h2>The world is using up its oil reserves faster than it is replenishing them<\/h2>\n<p>Another sign of market tightness is the decline in global stocks. When production, refining or transport cannot keep pace with current consumption, countries and companies are forced to draw on previously stockpiled oil and petroleum products.<\/p>\n<p>According to the IEA, the cumulative reduction in global observed reserves since the beginning <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/economics\/viina-on-blyzkomu-skhodu-zbilshuie-dokhody-putina\/\">the conflict in the Middle East<\/a> By the end of July, it stood at around 410 million barrels. By the end of August, it had reached 507 million barrels.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Figure 3.<\/strong> The cumulative reduction in global oil reserves.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-32649\" src=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200-300x169.png\" alt=\"Global oil reserves\" width=\"701\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200-18x10.png 18w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200-747x420.png 747w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200-1068x601.png 1068w, https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/global_oil_stock_draw_1200.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 701px) 100vw, 701px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This refers to the cumulative decline in reserves compared with pre-war levels, rather than the total volume of oil remaining in the world.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>As reserves are depleted, the market becomes more sensitive to further disruptions. Even a temporary shutdown of a major port, oil pipeline or refinery can trigger a more rapid price reaction if companies lack sufficient stocks to offset the losses.<\/p>\n<h3>Key indicators of the global fuel market<\/h3>\n<div>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>Indicator.<\/th>\n<th>Meaning.<\/th>\n<th>Period<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Global oil production<\/td>\n<td>100.1 million barrels per day<\/td>\n<td>August 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Global oil refining<\/td>\n<td>81.4 million barrels per day<\/td>\n<td>August 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Year-on-year decline in processing<\/td>\n<td>4.2 million barrels per day<\/td>\n<td>August 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Net exports of diesel from the Persian Gulf<\/td>\n<td>390,000 barrels per day<\/td>\n<td>August 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Overall reduction in oil stocks<\/td>\n<td>507 million barrels<\/td>\n<td>By the end of August<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Forecast for the average price of Brent<\/td>\n<td>$105\/barrel<\/td>\n<td>Fourth quarter of 2026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>IEA, September report; EIA, forecast dated 6 October. The figures relate to different market segments and are not aggregated.<\/p>\n<h2>Will strategic reserves and agreements with Russia help?<\/h2>\n<p>In early October, the G7 governments and the International Energy Agency stepped up measures to increase available supplies. Discussions are under way regarding the accelerated release of approximately 100 million barrels of oil and petroleum products from strategic reserves, with a particular focus on diesel.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, a significant proportion of these volumes relates to previously announced reserve commitments and does not necessarily represent an entirely new supply on the market. The impact will therefore depend on the actual delivery dates, the composition of the reserves and how quickly the fuel reaches consumers.<\/p>\n<p>An additional factor was <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/politics\/tramp-putin-dyzel-sanktsii-zelenskyi-2026\/\">US decision<\/a> to temporarily authorise certain transactions involving Russian diesel fuel. On 9 October <strong>Donald Trump<\/strong> after speaking with <strong>Vladimir Putin<\/strong> He announced a supply plan that envisages over 300,000 tonnes in the near future, 500,000 tonnes in November and a further million tonnes thereafter. A possible additional 3 million tonnes depends on the condition of Russian oil refineries.<\/p>\n<p>The total announced potential volume exceeds 4.8 million tonnes. However, it is important to distinguish between a political agreement and the physical arrival of fuel on the market. Actual deliveries depend on production capacity, logistics and the terms of the agreement.<\/p>\n<p>For the market, this may mean a slight short-term easing of the shortage. However, the agreement itself does not rebuild the destroyed refineries, does not eliminate the risks in the Strait of Hormuz, nor does it guarantee the normalisation of global trade in diesel.<\/p>\n<p>There is also a political aspect. Additional <strong>Russia\u2019s revenue from the sale of petroleum products could boost its financial resources, which are available, in particular, to fund the war<\/strong>. President of Ukraine <strong>Volodymyr Zelenskyy<\/strong> criticised the easing of US sanctions, whilst the Trump administration justifies the decision on the grounds that it is necessary to keep fuel prices in check.<\/p>\n<h2>Why high diesel prices could affect food supplies and global trade<\/h2>\n<p>The main risk posed by the fuel crisis is its gradual spread to other sectors of the economy. Rising diesel prices could affect the production costs of food, industrial goods and international logistics, even without a further rise in oil prices.<\/p>\n<p>In agriculture, diesel is used in tractors, combine harvesters, lorries and auxiliary machinery. During the sowing or harvesting seasons, demand for fuel rises, and any increase in its price has a direct impact on farms\u2019 operating costs.<\/p>\n<p>The transport sector is facing similar challenges. Freight companies are either raising their rates or temporarily operating at lower profit margins. These additional costs may be passed on in the prices of goods delivered over long distances.<\/p>\n<p>International trade is another channel through which these factors exert an influence. Rising freight rates, insurance premiums and fuel costs increase the cost of transport. Goods with low profit margins, for which transport accounts for a significant proportion of the final price, may be the most vulnerable.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the impact on consumer inflation is neither immediate nor uniform across all countries. It depends on the structure of the economy, the proportion of transport costs, tax policy, competition and the ability of businesses to absorb additional costs without raising prices.<\/p>\n<h2>What the fuel crisis means for Ukraine<\/h2>\n<p>Ukraine remains vulnerable to changes in the international petroleum products market due to its significant dependence on imports. Global rises in the price of diesel, exchange rate fluctuations and logistics costs may affect domestic <a href=\"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/economics\/tsiny-dyzel-azs-mayzhe-99-hrn\/\">prices at petrol stations<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>According to AUTO.RIA\u2019s monitoring data, as at 9 October 2026, the average price of diesel fuel in Ukraine stood at 98.55 UAH per litre. At some chain petrol stations, it was approaching 100 UAH. These figures are based on specific monitoring data and may differ from estimates provided by other market participants.<\/p>\n<p>The changes have the most direct impact on freight carriers, agricultural producers and businesses that use diesel generators. The latter factor is particularly important during Russian attacks on energy infrastructure: an increase in the number of hours the generators are in operation means additional fuel requirements.<\/p>\n<h3>Which sectors in Ukraine are most vulnerable to price rises?<\/h3>\n<div>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>Sector<\/th>\n<th>The main channel of influence<\/th>\n<th>A possible consequence<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Agriculture<\/td>\n<td>Fuel for machinery<\/td>\n<td>Rise in production costs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Freight transport<\/td>\n<td>The cost of operating motor vehicles<\/td>\n<td>Tariff review<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Trade<\/td>\n<td>Delivery of goods<\/td>\n<td>Pressure on retail prices<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Industry<\/td>\n<td>Generators and logistics<\/td>\n<td>Rising production costs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Public utilities<\/td>\n<td>Back-up power supply<\/td>\n<td>Increase in current expenditure<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Population<\/td>\n<td>Private vehicles and generators<\/td>\n<td>Additional household expenditure<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Ukrainian fuel market is also dependent on the situation in neighbouring EU countries. If European importers increase their purchases of diesel due to a global shortage, this could intensify competition for available supplies.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, short-term fluctuations in international prices are not necessarily reflected immediately at Ukrainian petrol stations. Factors such as stocks already purchased, delivery times, competition between chains and the exchange rate all play a part.<\/p>\n<h2>Three scenarios for the global market up to the end of 2026<\/h2>\n<p>Future price trends will depend primarily on the development of the conflict in the Middle East, the state of oil refining capacity and the pace at which maritime supplies are restored. Based on current data, three possible scenarios can be identified. This is not a specific quantitative forecast, but rather an analysis of possible ways in which the situation might develop.<\/p>\n<div>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>Scenario.<\/th>\n<th>Background.<\/th>\n<th>Possible consequences<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Gradual stabilisation<\/td>\n<td>Sea routes and exports from the Persian Gulf are being resumed<\/td>\n<td>A reduction in the deficit, a gradual easing of price pressures<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>A prolonged shortage<\/td>\n<td>Disruptions persist, whilst refineries are recovering slowly<\/td>\n<td>High diesel prices, additional business costs<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>A new escalation<\/td>\n<td>Further attacks on oil facilities and tankers<\/td>\n<td>Sharp price fluctuations, new logistical restrictions<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>In its forecast of 6 October, the US EIA projected an average Brent price of approximately $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. For 2027, the agency forecast a price of around $84 per barrel, assuming a gradual recovery in supplies and stocks. This is a baseline forecast, not a guaranteed price level.<\/p>\n<p>It is particularly important to note that even as the price of crude oil falls, the diesel shortage may persist for some time. The market for refined petroleum products is subject to specific production and transport constraints, which do not automatically disappear when the price of crude oil falls.<\/p>\n<h2>Which indicators should we keep an eye on over the coming weeks?<\/h2>\n<p>To understand how the situation will develop, it is important to look beyond just the daily price of Brent. A much more complete picture is provided by considering a combination of oil prices, refining margins, diesel export volumes, commercial stocks and actual changes to transport routes.<\/p>\n<p>On 14 October, the International Energy Agency is due to publish its latest monthly report on the oil market. This will provide an opportunity to assess whether the situation regarding production, refining and global stocks has changed following the upheavals in September. The updated data may form the basis for a revision of forecasts for the final quarter of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Diesel prices in Europe, the reliability of supplies from abroad, the exchange rate and the additional demand for fuel due to reserve electricity generation will remain particularly important for Ukraine.<\/p>\n<h2>Frequently asked questions about the global fuel crisis<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Why is diesel rising in price faster than petrol?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This is due to a reduction in the production and international supply of medium distillates in particular, which include diesel. Demand from the freight transport sector, the agricultural sector and industry remains steady, whilst it is difficult to ramp up production quickly.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Does high oil prices automatically mean higher diesel prices?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>No. The cost of crude oil is just one component of the price. Refining, logistics, taxes and exchange rates all play an important role.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Could supplies of Russian diesel bring down global prices?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Additional physical deliveries may ease the shortage, but their impact will depend on volumes, timing and the situation in other regions. The announcement of the agreement alone is not enough to guarantee a fall in prices.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Could the price of diesel in Ukraine rise even further?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Such a risk exists in the event of a renewed rise in international prices, a deterioration in logistics or currency fluctuations. At the same time, it would be incorrect to predict the exact level of future prices without further data.<\/p>\n<h2>What will shape the future of the global fuel market?<\/h2>\n<p>World <strong>the 2026 fuel crisis<\/strong> has shown just how vulnerable the economy remains to disruptions in international energy supply chains. Even large reserves of crude oil do not guarantee the availability of refined fuel if there is a shortage of refining capacity or if transport routes are disrupted.<\/p>\n<p>The most significant feature of the current situation is the combination of several factors: restrictions on exports from the Persian Gulf, a reduction in Russian refining capacity, rising transport costs and the gradual depletion of stocks. As a result, the diesel market is reacting more sharply to these shocks than the petrol market.<\/p>\n<p>For governments, the main challenge is not only to keep prices in check in the short term, but also to ensure the resilience of energy infrastructure and international supplies. For businesses, it is the ability to cope with unpredictable costs. For consumers, there is a risk that some of these costs will gradually be passed on to the prices of everyday goods and services.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The key question for the coming months is not only how much a barrel of oil will cost, but also whether the global refining and logistics system will be able to supply sufficient quantities of finished fuel.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0421\u0432\u0456\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0439 \u043f\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0432\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u0440\u0438\u043d\u043e\u043a \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u0432\u0430\u0454 \u043e\u0434\u043d\u0443 \u0437 \u043d\u0430\u0439\u0433\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0456\u0448\u0438\u0445 \u043a\u0440\u0438\u0437 \u043e\u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d\u043d\u0456\u0445 \u0440\u043e\u043a\u0456\u0432. \u0427\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437 \u0432\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0443 \u043d\u0430 \u0411\u043b\u0438\u0437\u044c\u043a\u043e\u043c\u0443 \u0421\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0456, 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