CBAM<\/a> \u2014 a carbon border adjustment mechanism that takes into account greenhouse gas emissions during the production of steel and other goods. The main phase of the CBAM began on 1 January 2026; importers must start purchasing allowances in February 2027 to cover imports for 2026.<\/p>\nGMK Centre attributes the July decline primarily to the introduction of the TRQ<\/h2>\n
According to Tarasenko, steel production fell by 35% in July compared with June. The analyst attributes this decline primarily to the introduction of tariff quotas, as the blockade of seaports intensified later on.<\/p>\n
At the same time, this assessment does not imply that trade restrictions were the sole cause of the decline. The state of the industry is simultaneously influenced by the security situation, maritime and other logistics, as well as the cost of electricity.<\/p>\n
Domestic demand means that the plants cannot operate at full capacity<\/h2>\n
The problem for the plants lies not only in physical reconstruction following the damage. According to Tarasenko, creditors and investors are not prepared to finance the reconstruction of blast furnaces or electric steelmaking facilities without a forecast of market demand for at least 12\u201324 months.<\/p>\n
In the first half of the year, Ukrainian steelmakers supplied around 1.1 million tonnes of products to the domestic market. Given a nominal steelmaking capacity of 8 million tonnes per year, this level of demand is insufficient to keep the plants operating at full capacity.<\/p>\n
For integrated steelworks, operating below the technological minimum increases the cost price per tonne of steel and may render continuous production unprofitable. Prolonged downtime also carries the risk of losing skilled workers, who may be in short supply even after the hostilities have ended.<\/p>\n
Export revenues and investment in the sector are under threat<\/h2>\n
In 2025, exports of pig iron and steel generated $3.7 billion in revenue for Ukraine. GMK Centre suggests that this volume could be lost in 2027 if the enterprises do not resume operations. This is a scenario-based assessment of possible future consequences, rather than a confirmed loss.<\/p>\n
In a worst-case scenario, the impact on the balance of payments could reach $5.2 billion, taking into account the loss of exports and the possible need to import metal products for the domestic market. In 2025, companies in the sector invested approximately $700 million in development; however, given the sharp fall in output, it will be more difficult to maintain this level of investment.<\/p>\n
GMK Center is calling on the EU to relax the TRQ and introduce special conditions for Ukraine regarding the application of the CBAM. As of 14 October, Ukraine\u2019s dialogue with the European Commission is ongoing, but no decision has been confirmed regarding special relaxations of the rules for the Ukrainian steel industry.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GMK Center believes that without access to the EU market, investors will not fund the reconstruction of Ukrainian steelworks.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":207433355,"featured_media":33223,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_description":"GMK Center \u0432\u0432\u0430\u0436\u0430\u0454, \u0449\u043e \u0431\u0435\u0437 \u0434\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0443\u043f\u0443 \u0434\u043e \u0440\u0438\u043d\u043a\u0443 \u0404\u0421 \u0456\u043d\u0432\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438 \u043d\u0435 \u0444\u0456\u043d\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0443\u0432\u0430\u0442\u0438\u043c\u0443\u0442\u044c \u0432\u0456\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0443\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0441\u044c\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0443\u0440\u0433\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0438\u0445 \u0437\u0430\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0456\u0432.","rank_math_title":"\u041a\u0440\u0438\u0437\u0430 \u043c\u0435\u0442\u0430\u043b\u0443\u0440\u0433\u0456\u0457 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0438: \u0404\u0421 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u044f\u0442\u044c \u043f\u043e\u043c\u2019\u044f\u043a\u0448\u0438\u0442\u0438 \u043a\u0432\u043e\u0442\u0438","rank_math_focus_keyword":"\u0404\u0421","td_subtitle":"","subtitle":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[805618],"tags":[806753],"class_list":["post-33224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economics","tag-806753"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/207433355"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33224"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33224\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33226,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33224\/revisions\/33226"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}