{"id":3886,"date":"2025-11-01T21:23:36","date_gmt":"2025-11-01T19:23:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/?p=3886"},"modified":"2025-11-01T21:23:36","modified_gmt":"2025-11-01T19:23:36","slug":"demographic-situation-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/analitika\/demographic-situation-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Demographic situation in Ukraine: challenges and prospects"},"content":{"rendered":"

After years of war, Ukraine is facing a demographic crisis. How many of us are left, how the population structure has changed, and what can save demographics - analytics UkrMedia<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

1. Population of Ukraine in 2025<\/h2>\n

According to estimates Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine<\/strong>, As of October 2025, the country is home to about 29.8 million people<\/strong> (excluding the occupied territories).
By the time the full-scale invasion began in 2022, the population was over 41 million<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Over 7.5 million Ukrainians<\/strong> left the country as refugees, and about 4 million<\/strong> are still abroad.<\/p>\n

\n

2. Key demographic trends<\/h2>\n
\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Indicator.<\/strong><\/th>\n2021<\/strong><\/th>\n2023<\/strong><\/th>\n2025 (estimate)<\/strong><\/th>\nShift (%)<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Population (million people)<\/strong><\/td>\n41,0<\/td>\n32,6<\/td>\n29,8<\/td>\n-27%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Number of births (thousand)<\/strong><\/td>\n273<\/td>\n187<\/td>\n160<\/td>\n-41%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Number of deaths (thousand)<\/strong><\/td>\n616<\/td>\n585<\/td>\n520<\/td>\n-15%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Natural increase (thousand)<\/strong><\/td>\n-343<\/td>\n-398<\/td>\n-360<\/td>\n-<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Migration balance (thousand)<\/strong><\/td>\n-110<\/td>\n-220<\/td>\n-180<\/td>\n-<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Sources:<\/strong> State Statistics Service, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, UNFPA (updated in October 2025).<\/p>\n

\n

3. Birth rate: historic low<\/h2>\n

In 2024, the following children were born in Ukraine less than 160 thousand children<\/strong> - is the lowest rate in the history of independence<\/strong>.
For comparison, in 2012, more than 520 thousand<\/strong> infants.<\/p>\n

The reasons for the fall are obvious:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    War and evacuation of women of reproductive age;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    uncertainty about the future;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    economic instability;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    shortage of medical services in the frontline regions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Experts predict that by 2030, the birth rate will increase by only 10-15%<\/strong>, The government will not be able to provide significant incentives to families unless there is a substantial government programme.<\/p>\n

    \n

    4. Population ageing<\/h2>\n

    The average age of Ukrainians today is 41.3 years<\/strong>, and it continues to grow.
    The share of people over 60 years old is over 25%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    This creates Additional pressure on the pension system<\/strong> and requires changes in employment policy.
    According to the World Bank, by 2035 Ukraine could become one of the oldest countries in Europe<\/strong>, The losses will not be compensated by migration or the return of young Ukrainians.<\/p>\n

    \n

    5. Migration: the return of Ukrainians<\/h2>\n

    According to surveys Kantar and KSE Institute<\/strong>, about 38% Ukrainians abroad plan to return<\/strong> after the end of the war.
    Key motives:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n

      desire to be close to family;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      restoring jobs;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      stability and security.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      However, approximately 30% young professionals<\/strong> have already integrated into the EU and are considering permanent residence<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

      \n

      6. Possible scenarios of demographic recovery<\/h2>\n
      \n
      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Scenario.<\/strong><\/th>\nDescription.<\/strong><\/th>\nEstimated population in 2035.<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
      Optimistic<\/strong><\/td>\nReturn of 3 million refugees, higher birth rates, economic growth<\/td>\n~35 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Basic<\/strong><\/td>\nReturns of 2 million, moderate birth rate growth, low emigration<\/td>\n~32 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Pessimistic<\/strong><\/td>\nReturns of less than 1 million, prolonged war, migration outflow of young people<\/td>\n~28 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

      Forecast of the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n

      7. 7.<\/h2>\n

      Ukraine is facing one of the most profound demographic challenges in its history<\/strong>.
      The population will need to recover:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        large-scale family support programmes;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        reforms in healthcare and education;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        incentives for citizens to return from abroad;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        modernisation of migration policy.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Without these steps, by the 2030s there could be shortage of labour resources<\/strong> and an excessive burden on the social system.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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