{"id":9000,"date":"2026-02-01T05:51:25","date_gmt":"2026-02-01T03:51:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/?p=9000"},"modified":"2026-02-01T05:51:25","modified_gmt":"2026-02-01T03:51:25","slug":"viina-rosii-proty-ukrainy-analitika","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/analitika\/viina-rosii-proty-ukrainy-analitika\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia's war against Ukraine: analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Russia's war against Ukraine: a complete analytical picture<\/h2>\n<p>Russia's war against Ukraine is not only an armed confrontation, but a multidimensional conflict that combines military operations, economic exhaustion, global geopolitics and the transformation of the international security system.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"407\" data-end=\"480\">Chronology of the war: from hybrid aggression to full-scale invasion<\/h2>\n<h3 data-start=\"482\" data-end=\"511\">2014: the beginning of the conflict<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"512\" data-end=\"720\">The war began with the annexation of Crimea and Russia's armed intervention in Donbas. It was a classic example of <strong data-start=\"612\" data-end=\"631\">hybrid warfare<\/strong>A combination of military force, propaganda, economic pressure and denial of direct involvement.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"722\" data-end=\"755\">2014-2021: the frozen war<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"756\" data-end=\"849\">The Minsk agreements did not lead to peace. russia used the period of relative calm to:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"850\" data-end=\"937\">\n<li data-start=\"850\" data-end=\"870\">\n<p data-start=\"852\" data-end=\"870\">army training<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"871\" data-end=\"895\">\n<p data-start=\"873\" data-end=\"895\">resource accumulation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"896\" data-end=\"937\">\n<p data-start=\"898\" data-end=\"937\">political pressure on Ukraine and the West<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"939\" data-end=\"964\">24 February 2022<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"965\" data-end=\"1100\"><span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Russia<\/span><\/span> carried out a full-scale invasion of <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Ukraine<\/span><\/span>, The company's main goal is to:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1101\" data-end=\"1189\">\n<li data-start=\"1101\" data-end=\"1137\">\n<p data-start=\"1103\" data-end=\"1137\">The imminent collapse of the Ukrainian government<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1138\" data-end=\"1161\">\n<p data-start=\"1140\" data-end=\"1161\">minimal resistance<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1162\" data-end=\"1189\">\n<p data-start=\"1164\" data-end=\"1189\">limited response from the West<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1191\" data-end=\"1223\">These calculations turned out to be wrong.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1225\" data-end=\"1261\">2022-2025: war of attrition<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1262\" data-end=\"1390\">After the failure of the lightning campaign, the war transformed into <strong data-start=\"1323\" data-end=\"1361\">Long-term confrontation of resources<\/strong>, where the key role is played by the key players:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1391\" data-end=\"1462\">\n<li data-start=\"1391\" data-end=\"1404\">\n<p data-start=\"1393\" data-end=\"1404\">economy<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1405\" data-end=\"1422\">\n<p data-start=\"1407\" data-end=\"1422\">industry<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1423\" data-end=\"1437\">\n<p data-start=\"1425\" data-end=\"1437\">technologies<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1438\" data-end=\"1462\">\n<p data-start=\"1440\" data-end=\"1462\">international support<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"1464\" data-end=\"1467\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"1469\" data-end=\"1516\">Goals of the parties: why compromise is almost impossible<\/h2>\n<h3 data-start=\"1518\" data-end=\"1546\">Russia's strategic goals<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1547\" data-end=\"1631\">For the Kremlin, this war is not about territory, but about <strong data-start=\"1593\" data-end=\"1630\">control over Ukraine as a state<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1632\" data-end=\"1761\">\n<li data-start=\"1632\" data-end=\"1671\">\n<p data-start=\"1634\" data-end=\"1671\">Elimination of Ukrainian subjectivity<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1672\" data-end=\"1713\">\n<p data-start=\"1674\" data-end=\"1713\">blocking Euro-Atlantic integration<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1714\" data-end=\"1761\">\n<p data-start=\"1716\" data-end=\"1761\">demonstration of the West's strength as \u00abincapacitated\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1763\" data-end=\"1852\">Defeat in the war will mean for the Russian authorities <strong data-start=\"1811\" data-end=\"1851\">loss of legitimacy within the country<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1854\" data-end=\"1872\">Goals of Ukraine<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1873\" data-end=\"1923\">For Ukraine, the war has <strong data-start=\"1895\" data-end=\"1922\">existential nature<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1924\" data-end=\"2066\">\n<li data-start=\"1924\" data-end=\"1950\">\n<p data-start=\"1926\" data-end=\"1950\">preservation of statehood<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1951\" data-end=\"1986\">\n<p data-start=\"1953\" data-end=\"1986\">return of the occupied territories<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1987\" data-end=\"2007\">\n<p data-start=\"1989\" data-end=\"2007\">security guarantees<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2008\" data-end=\"2066\">\n<p data-start=\"2010\" data-end=\"2066\">Integration into the EU and NATO as a defence against repeated aggression<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2068\" data-end=\"2146\">Any \u00abpeace\u00bb without security guarantees will only mean a pause before a new war.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2148\" data-end=\"2151\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"2153\" data-end=\"2194\">State of the front: a new type of modern warfare<\/h2>\n<h3 data-start=\"2196\" data-end=\"2222\">Nature of the hostilities<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2223\" data-end=\"2288\">The frontline is increasingly resembling <strong data-start=\"2251\" data-end=\"2287\">industrial war of the XXI century<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2289\" data-end=\"2394\">\n<li data-start=\"2289\" data-end=\"2319\">\n<p data-start=\"2291\" data-end=\"2319\">massive use of drones<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2320\" data-end=\"2347\">\n<p data-start=\"2322\" data-end=\"2347\">counter-battery warfare<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2348\" data-end=\"2369\">\n<p data-start=\"2350\" data-end=\"2369\">high-precision strikes<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2370\" data-end=\"2394\">\n<p data-start=\"2372\" data-end=\"2394\">EWR and the cyber component<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"2396\" data-end=\"2412\">Balance of power<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2413\" data-end=\"2567\">\n<li data-start=\"2413\" data-end=\"2489\">\n<p data-start=\"2415\" data-end=\"2489\"><strong data-start=\"2415\" data-end=\"2426\">Ukraine<\/strong> relies on precision, technology and asymmetric solutions<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2490\" data-end=\"2567\">\n<p data-start=\"2492\" data-end=\"2567\"><strong data-start=\"2492\" data-end=\"2501\">Russia<\/strong> - on the enemy's numbers, mobilisation resources and wear and tear<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2569\" data-end=\"2674\">This creates a stalemate where a breakthrough is possible only if <strong data-start=\"2630\" data-end=\"2673\">a qualitative change in the resources of one of the parties<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2676\" data-end=\"2679\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"2681\" data-end=\"2707\">The economic dimension of war<\/h2>\n<h3 data-start=\"2709\" data-end=\"2759\">Ukraine: an economy of survival and transformation<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2760\" data-end=\"2865\">\n<li data-start=\"2760\" data-end=\"2781\">\n<p data-start=\"2762\" data-end=\"2781\">significant GDP losses<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2782\" data-end=\"2821\">\n<p data-start=\"2784\" data-end=\"2821\">large-scale destruction of infrastructure<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2822\" data-end=\"2865\">\n<p data-start=\"2824\" data-end=\"2865\">dependence on external financing<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2867\" data-end=\"2893\">At the same time, the war accelerated it:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2894\" data-end=\"2985\">\n<li data-start=\"2894\" data-end=\"2923\">\n<p data-start=\"2896\" data-end=\"2923\">defence industrialisation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2924\" data-end=\"2940\">\n<p data-start=\"2926\" data-end=\"2940\">digitalisation<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2941\" data-end=\"2985\">\n<p data-start=\"2943\" data-end=\"2985\">reorientation of the economy to EU standards<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"2987\" data-end=\"3025\">russia: war as a financial trap<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"3026\" data-end=\"3148\">\n<li data-start=\"3026\" data-end=\"3055\">\n<p data-start=\"3028\" data-end=\"3055\">chronic budget deficit<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3056\" data-end=\"3096\">\n<p data-start=\"3058\" data-end=\"3096\">dependence on energy exports<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3097\" data-end=\"3116\">\n<p data-start=\"3099\" data-end=\"3116\">sanctions pressure<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3117\" data-end=\"3148\">\n<p data-start=\"3119\" data-end=\"3148\">Increased military spending<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3150\" data-end=\"3230\">The longer the war lasts, the more <strong data-start=\"3178\" data-end=\"3208\">less room for manoeuvre<\/strong> remains with the Kremlin.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"3232\" data-end=\"3235\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"3237\" data-end=\"3287\">International support: key to Ukraine's resilience<\/h2>\n<h3 data-start=\"3289\" data-end=\"3312\">Military aspect<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3313\" data-end=\"3378\">Western support defines <strong data-start=\"3339\" data-end=\"3377\">Ukraine's ability to deter Russia<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3379\" data-end=\"3438\">\n<li data-start=\"3379\" data-end=\"3386\">\n<p data-start=\"3381\" data-end=\"3386\">AIR DEFENCE<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3387\" data-end=\"3400\">\n<p data-start=\"3389\" data-end=\"3400\">artillery<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3401\" data-end=\"3423\">\n<p data-start=\"3403\" data-end=\"3423\">long-haul vehicles<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3424\" data-end=\"3438\">\n<p data-start=\"3426\" data-end=\"3438\">technologies<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"3440\" data-end=\"3463\">Political aspect<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"3464\" data-end=\"3528\">\n<li data-start=\"3464\" data-end=\"3475\">\n<p data-start=\"3466\" data-end=\"3475\">sanctions<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3476\" data-end=\"3504\">\n<p data-start=\"3478\" data-end=\"3504\">diplomatic isolation of russia<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3505\" data-end=\"3528\">\n<p data-start=\"3507\" data-end=\"3528\">international coalitions<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"3530\" data-end=\"3542\">Risks<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3543\" data-end=\"3574\">Support for Ukraine depends on:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3575\" data-end=\"3648\">\n<li data-start=\"3575\" data-end=\"3603\">\n<p data-start=\"3577\" data-end=\"3603\">US domestic policy<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3604\" data-end=\"3628\">\n<p data-start=\"3606\" data-end=\"3628\">European unity<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3629\" data-end=\"3648\">\n<p data-start=\"3631\" data-end=\"3648\">global crises<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr data-start=\"3650\" data-end=\"3653\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"3655\" data-end=\"3689\">Possible scenarios for the development of the war<\/h2>\n<h3 data-start=\"3691\" data-end=\"3713\">1. 1. A protracted war<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3714\" data-end=\"3782\">The most likely scenario is <strong data-start=\"3740\" data-end=\"3763\">war of attrition<\/strong> without a quick peace.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"3784\" data-end=\"3819\">2. A turnaround in favour of Ukraine<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3820\" data-end=\"3838\">Available on condition:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3839\" data-end=\"3933\">\n<li data-start=\"3839\" data-end=\"3872\">\n<p data-start=\"3841\" data-end=\"3872\">Increase in military aid<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3873\" data-end=\"3899\">\n<p data-start=\"3875\" data-end=\"3899\">technological superiority<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3900\" data-end=\"3933\">\n<p data-start=\"3902\" data-end=\"3933\">Russia's economic exhaustion<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"3935\" data-end=\"3962\">3. 3. an unstable \u00abpeace\u00bb<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"3963\" data-end=\"4027\">A temporary cessation of hostilities without resolving the causes of the conflict.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"4029\" data-end=\"4032\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"4034\" data-end=\"4045\">Conclusion.<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4047\" data-end=\"4144\">Russia's war against Ukraine is <strong data-start=\"4078\" data-end=\"4117\">The battle for the future world order<\/strong>.<br data-start=\"4118\" data-end=\"4121\" \/>It will determine the outcome:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4145\" data-end=\"4263\">\n<li data-start=\"4145\" data-end=\"4175\">\n<p data-start=\"4147\" data-end=\"4175\">whether international law works<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4176\" data-end=\"4207\">\n<p data-start=\"4178\" data-end=\"4207\">whether the security system makes sense<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4208\" data-end=\"4263\">\n<p data-start=\"4210\" data-end=\"4263\">whether great powers can change borders with impunity<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4265\" data-end=\"4382\">This material is used for <strong data-start=\"4285\" data-end=\"4306\">analytical base<\/strong>, It is worth referring to in all news and explanatory materials about the war.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0412\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0430 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0456\u0457 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0438: \u043f\u043e\u0432\u043d\u0430 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u043a\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u0412\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0430 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0456\u0457 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0438 \u2014 \u0446\u0435 \u043d\u0435 \u043b\u0438\u0448\u0435 \u0437\u0431\u0440\u043e\u0439\u043d\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u043d\u043d\u044f, \u0430 \u0431\u0430\u0433\u0430\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0438\u043c\u0456\u0440\u043d\u0438\u0439 \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0444\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0442, \u0449\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0454\u0434\u043d\u0443\u0454 \u0432\u0456\u0439\u0441\u044c\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0456 \u0434\u0456\u0457, \u0435\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0456\u0447\u043d\u0435 \u0432\u0438\u0441\u043d\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f, \u0433\u043b\u043e\u0431\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0443 \u0433\u0435\u043e\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0456\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0443 \u0442\u0430 \u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u0444\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u0446\u0456\u044e \u043c\u0456\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0457 \u0441\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0435\u043c\u0438 \u0431\u0435\u0437\u043f\u0435\u043a\u0438. \u0425\u0440\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0456\u044f \u0432\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0438: \u0432\u0456\u0434 \u0433\u0456\u0431\u0440\u0438\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0457 \u0430\u0433\u0440\u0435\u0441\u0456\u0457 \u0434\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0432\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0430\u0441\u0448\u0442\u0430\u0431\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0433\u043d\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044f 2014: \u043f\u043e\u0447\u0430\u0442\u043e\u043a \u043a\u043e\u043d\u0444\u043b\u0456\u043a\u0442\u0443 \u0412\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0430 \u0440\u043e\u0437\u043f\u043e\u0447\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0441\u044f \u0437 \u0430\u043d\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0456\u0457 \u041a\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0443 \u0442\u0430 \u0437\u0431\u0440\u043e\u0439\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0432\u0442\u0440\u0443\u0447\u0430\u043d\u043d\u044f \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0456\u0457 \u043d\u0430 \u0414\u043e\u043d\u0431\u0430\u0441\u0456. [\u2026]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":207433346,"featured_media":9001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_title":"","rank_math_description":"\u041f\u043e\u0432\u043d\u0430 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0456\u0442\u0438\u0447\u043d\u0430 \u043a\u0430\u0440\u0442\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u0432\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0438 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0456\u0457 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0438: \u0445\u0440\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0456\u044f, \u0446\u0456\u043b\u0456 \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0456\u043d, \u0441\u0442\u0430\u043d \u0444\u0440\u043e\u043d\u0442\u0443, \u0435\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0456\u0447\u043d\u0456 \u043d\u0430\u0441\u043b\u0456\u0434\u043a\u0438 \u0442\u0430 \u043c\u0456\u0436\u043d\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043d\u0430 \u043f\u0456\u0434\u0442\u0440\u0438\u043c\u043a\u0430.","rank_math_focus_keyword":"\u0412\u0456\u0439\u043d\u0430 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0456\u0457 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0442\u0438 \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0438","td_subtitle":"","subtitle":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[806792],"tags":[806793],"class_list":{"0":"post-9000","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analitika","8":"tag-806793"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/207433346"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9000"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9000\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9002,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9000\/revisions\/9002"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ukrmedia.news\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}