Russia is increasingly losing the initiative in the war against Ukraine. The failure of the new offensive, record losses of personnel, and Ukraine's advantage in the drone war indicate the beginning of a turning point in the conflict.
Russian offensive loses momentum
For the first time in a long time, Russia has found itself in a situation where its offensive capabilities have begun to weaken systematically. According to estimates The Economist, The current phase of the war shows signs of a strategic turning point: Russian offensive The year 2026 did not yield the expected results, and certain sections of the frontline are already falling under Ukrainian control.
Despite the Kremlin's months-long attempts to exhaust Ukrainian defences with massive assaults, the situation at the front is changing not in Moscow's favour. The Russian army is increasingly facing a shortage of equipment, manpower and logistical problems. Analysts note that the pace of Russia's advance has slowed sharply, and local retreats by Russian forces have been the first of their kind since 2024.
Ukrainian forces are gradually regaining the initiative, using new tactics of attrition, massive drone strikes and targeted destruction of enemy rear infrastructure.
Russian losses exceed the rate of army replenishment
The demographic and mobilisation crisis has become one of the most dangerous signals for the Kremlin. According to Western sources, the Russian army has begun to lose more soldiers than it is able to recruit through contracts and covert mobilisation.
Large losses at the front, The growing number of wounded and the psychological exhaustion of the military are putting increasing pressure on the Russian command. The Kremlin is already actively discussing the possibility of a new wave of mobilisation for 300,000 people. However, this scenario poses serious risks to the internal stability of Russia itself.
After the mobilisation of 2022, Russian society became much more sensitive to the topic of war. Mass conscription could cause a new wave of people fleeing abroad, economic problems and a drop in support for the government, even among loyalists.
At the same time Russian economy is increasingly operating in the mode of military exhaustion. The huge costs of the war, sanctions pressure, labour shortages and the decline in civilian production are beginning to create systemic problems for the Kremlin.
Ukraine seizes the advantage in the drone war
One of the key changes in recent months has been a sharp increase in Ukraine's capabilities in the field of unmanned systems. For the first time, Ukraine was able to surpass Russia in the number of long-range drone strikes.
While previously it was Russia that systematically attacked Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, the situation is now beginning to change. Ukrainian drones regularly reach military factories, ammunition depots, oil depots and logistics hubs in the deep rear of the Russian Federation.
The attacks on military facilities in Tatarstan, the Moscow region, Bryansk Oblast and Crimea have been particularly painful for Moscow. This is forcing the Kremlin to deploy more and more systems AIR DEFENCE to protect their own territory by weakening the front.
Analysts note that Ukraine is gradually developing a new model of warfare - cheap drones against expensive infrastructure. Such a strategy allows for the depletion of the Russian economy even without large-scale offensive operations.
The Kremlin is moving to a strategy of prolonging the war
Against this backdrop, Moscow is increasingly relying not on a military breakthrough, but on prolonging the conflict and applying political pressure. The Kremlin hopes that a prolonged war will exhaust the West and force Ukraine's allies to reduce their support.
That is why Russian propaganda is increasingly promoting narratives about «freezing the conflict», negotiations and European fatigue with the war. However, the actual situation on the frontline shows that Russia itself is entering a phase of exhaustion.
At the same time, Ukraine is demonstrating its ability to adapt to the new conditions of war. The production of drones, the modernisation of the defence industry and the integration of Western technologies are gradually changing the balance of power.
Why it matters
The situation in 2026 increasingly resembles the moment of Russia's strategic exhaustion. The failure of a new offensive, problems with mobilisation resources, and Ukraine's superiority in the field of drones create the conditions for a turning point in the war.
Although the conflict remains extremely complex and far from over, the Kremlin no longer appears to be a party that can quickly dictate conditions on the frontline. The war is entering a phase where economics, technology and the ability to withstand long-term attrition are playing a key role.
For Ukraine, this means a chance to gradually change the course of the war in its favour. For Russia, it means the risk of entering a protracted crisis, the consequences of which could be much more dangerous than the Kremlin expected.
