Why the Kremlin is responding positively to the US peace plan for Ukraine

Why Moscow is responding positively to the US plan and what threats it poses to the region

Against the backdrop of the publication of the 28-point US «peace plan», which includes territorial concessions and restrictions on the Ukrainian army, Moscow has been rather restrained, but generally positive. The official Kremlin speaks of «addressing the root causes of the conflict», while pro-Kremlin speakers and some military commentators call some of the plan's points «realistic» and taking into account Russia's demands.

This creates serious risks not only for Ukraine but also for the entire security system in Europe.

What the US plan offers and why it is beneficial to Moscow

According to media leaks, the plan includes several key provisions that directly coincide with Russia's maximalist demands:

1. Territorial concessions
- Recognition of Russia's control over all of Crimea, as well as most of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, not only on the actual front line, but with a «margin» in favour of Moscow.
- The actual «freezing» of the front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions with the fixation of Russian gains.

2. Limitations of the Ukrainian army
- Reducing the size of the Armed Forces, a ban on certain types of weapons and long-range missiles, i.e. weakening Ukraine's defence capability in the long term.

3. Rejection of NATO
- Direct blocking of Euro-Atlantic integration: a ban on Ukraine's accession to NATO, the status of a «neutral» state without real collective defence.

4. 4. russia's return to western formats
- A number of publications mention the possibility of Russia's resumption of participation in the G8 format and partial easing of sanctions in exchange for «peace».

In fact, this means that Russia gets territorial gain, military guarantees against a strong Ukraine and a chance for partial rehabilitation in the Western system, Kyiv pays for it with sovereignty and security.

What the Kremlin says: «eliminate the root causes of the conflict»

Officially, Moscow is being cautious: Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that any plan must «address the root causes of the conflict» and that there are no formal talks with the US on a plan.

Translated from the Kremlin language, this means:

• Legalise our claims:
  - Ukraine's rejection of NATO;
  - recognition of «new territories of Russia»;
  - Limitations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

• Change the security architecture in Europe so that NATO does not «encroach» on what Moscow considers its «sphere of influence» (Ukraine, Georgia, etc.).

And these very points, according to the leaks, are already partially built into the American project - so the Kremlin is not shouting «victory» but showing restrained satisfaction.

Propaganda and «warlords»: why the reaction is mixed, but generally positive

The Russian propaganda space and some military commentators are reacting to the «plan» with varying degrees of enthusiasm:

• Some call it «Ukraine's surrender» and «a victory for Moscow's strategic patience».

• Others note that «some points are unacceptable for Kyiv, but overall the document is realistic», quoting sources who call the plan «a mix of practical proposals with good intentions».

The key narrative of Russian propaganda:

The West itself has recognised that Ukraine cannot win and is now trying to impose «peace» on it on terms similar to Russia's.

This allows the Kremlin to do so simultaneously:

• demoralise Ukrainian society, emphasising the «loneliness» of Kyiv;

• to put pressure on Europe, saying, «The US has already decided everything, you just have to agree»;

• to demonstrate to its domestic audience that «Russia has withstood and forced the West to speak on its terms».

How the Russian military establishment is reacting

Cautious optimism is evident among military observers and some power elites:

1. Army gets rest and time to regroup
   The cessation of active hostilities on lines favourable to Moscow allows for this:
   - to preserve the acquired territories;
   - to free up resources to rebuild the army;
   - prepare for a long-term confrontation with NATO.

2. Ukraine is being «disarmed by a treaty»
   Restricting the Armed Forces and banning powerful long-range systems is something that Russia could not achieve on the battlefield, but can get at the negotiating table.

3. Room for revenge in the future
   If the Ukrainian army is artificially limited and security mechanisms are diluted, the Kremlin will have the opportunity to re-attack a few years later, from a better position.

What threats does Moscow's «positive» reaction pose to Ukraine and the region?

1. Legalisation of aggression as a «method of politics»

If the plan with territorial concessions is implemented, it will send a signal to Russia and other authoritarian regimes:

«The forceful seizure of territories pays off if you keep up the pressure long enough.».

This undermines the system of international law, the UN, and the principles of inviolability of borders in Europe.

2. Dismantling European security

Acceptance of a «neutral Ukraine» devoid of real guarantees creates grey area in the centre of the continent, which Russia will continue to see as a field of influence. This puts it at risk:

• Eastern Europe and the Baltic States;

• trust in NATO as a collective security structure;

• the unity of the EU, which is already demanding a seat at the negotiating table and warning of the dangers of unilateral decisions by the US and Russia.

3. Internal destabilisation of Ukraine

For Ukrainian society, any attempt to legalise the loss of territory and limit the army will look like betrayal, The company's business is a risky business:

• political crisis in Kyiv;

• the rise of radical sentiment;

• weakening trust in the government and partners.

This is perfectly in line with the interests of Russia, which has been investing in destabilising Ukraine from within for years.

4. 4. The split between the US and Europe

European capitals are already publicly expressing dissatisfaction with the format, when the plan is developed behind the backs of Kyiv and Brussels.

This is a chance for the Kremlin:

• deepen transatlantic split;

• to reinforce the narrative of a «decaying West that cannot agree with itself»;

• to build bilateral agreements with individual European capitals, bypassing the common policy.

Why it is critical for Ukraine not to let the Kremlin «win by peace»

Ukraine is caught between two extremes:

• risk of losing a key partner (USA) in the short term;

• risk of losing state subjectivity and dignity in the long run, if you agree to bondage conditions.

The main conclusions that emerge from Moscow's reaction:

1. If the Kremlin is generally satisfied with the logic of the plan, then, it provides strategic advantages for russia.

2. Any fair peace agreement cannot be built on:
   - recognition of annexations;
   - Forced disarmament of the victim of aggression;
   - Ukraine's exclusion from the collective security system.

3. Ukraine and Europe need to actively form their own alternative, We are not just reacting to other people's initiatives.

Conclusion.

The positive signals coming from Moscow about the US «peace plan» are not about peace, but about legitimising the results of aggression and an attempt to consolidate a new security architecture favourable to the Kremlin.

For Ukraine and the region, the main challenge now is not only to defend the territories, but also to Do not allow “peace” to be turned into an instrument of defeat, The company's business is based on the text of an international agreement.