Ukraine's agricultural sector is entering a new crisis cycle. Amid geopolitical tensions and a sharp rise in input costs, farmers are recording record production costs. This will inevitably affect prices in stores in the coming months.
Why prices are rising rapidly right now
Recent weeks have seen a sharp rise in the price of key inputs for farmers. According to farmers, the price of mineral fertilisers has increased from UAH 27,000 to 41,000 per tonne, which means approximately +50% in a short period of time.
The situation with fuel is no less critical: diesel has almost doubled in price, from UAH 50,000 to 90,000 per tonne in just a month and a half.
Reasons:
- aggravation of the situation in the Middle East (in particular around Iran)
- fluctuations in global oil prices
- logistical constraints and supply risks
- Devaluation pressure and internal costs
In fact, farmers found themselves in a situation where The cost of growing has risen sharply even before the harvest.
How this will affect prices in autumn
The economics of agricultural production are simple: rising costs are inevitably passed on to the end consumer.
According to market participants, we should expect it in the autumn:
- rise in price of vegetables by 30-60%
- increase in fruit prices to 50% and more
- rise in price of greenhouse products due to energy costs
This will hit the following categories the hardest:
- potato
- onion
- carrot
- tomatoes and cucumbers
- apples and seasonal fruit
The situation will be particularly challenging for products that require intensive fertilisation or high fuel costs.
Why this is a systemic problem, not a temporary blip
Analysts emphasise that the current situation is not a short-term fluctuation, but the cumulative effect of several crises.
First, the war continues to affect the agricultural sector:
- part of the land is inaccessible or mined
- destroyed infrastructure
- limited logistics
Second, Ukraine is heavily dependent on imports:
- fertilisers
- fuel
- equipment and spare parts
Any global shocks - like the current one Tensions in the Middle East - instantly hit the cost of production.
Thirdly, farmers often work with minimal margins. In such circumstances, they are simply forced to raise prices to survive.
Experts' predictions: what will happen next
Experts agree that the price peak is still ahead.
It is expected that:
- in September-October will start the main wave of price increases
- In winter, prices may increase by another 10-20% through storage and logistics
- certain items may become scarce
Analysts also point to another risk reduction of crops. Some farmers are already cutting back on production due to high costs. This means less supply and even more pressure on prices.
How Ukrainians will feel it
In fact, products, traditionally considered basic, may move into the «expensive» category.
Family budgets are under additional strain:
- The share of food costs will increase
- The availability of fresh fruit and vegetables will decrease
- The structure of consumption will change
This will especially affect socially vulnerable groups.
Is there a way out of the situation
It is difficult to change the situation in the short term. However, experts name several possible solutions:
- State support for farmers (subsidies, compensation)
- Stabilisation of the fuel market
- Development of domestic fertiliser production
- improving logistics
However, even in an optimistic scenario, prices are unlikely to return to their previous level in the near future.
Conclusion.
The Ukrainian food market is entering a phase of major changes. The sharp rise in the cost of fertilisers and fuel is already laying the groundwork for higher food prices in the autumn.
Vegetables and fruits that were previously affordable may become much more expensive and sometimes scarce. For Ukrainians, this means one thing: they need to prepare for the new reality now.
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