China and India unexpectedly win the tariff race with the US
China and India have unexpectedly become among the main beneficiaries of the US tariff policy after the Supreme Court's decision to cancel the emergency duties imposed earlier Donald Trump. This is reported by the Bloomberg.
What has changed
According to Bloomberg Economics, the countries that had previously suffered the most from US tariffs have now gained a relative advantage in the US market. These are primarily China, India and Brazil, for which the effective rates on exports to the US have fallen.
Despite the fact that Donald Trump later announced his intention to introduce universal tariffs of 15% for all countries, calculations show that the average effective rate will be around 12%. This is the lowest level since the «Day of Releasing» tariffs were introduced in April.
Estimates of economists
Morgan Stanley analysts predict further easing of tariff pressure on Asia. According to their estimates, the weighted average tariff rate for the region will decrease from 20% to 17%, and the average duties on Chinese goods will decrease from 32% to 24%.
At the same time, some of the US allies are in a less favourable position. In particular, the United Kingdom and Australia, which had previously agreed on «reciprocal» duties at 10%, are now losing their relative advantage.
Context.
A revision of the US tariff policy could have a significant impact on global trade flows and the balance between the leading economies. Analysts note that Washington's further steps in the area of tariffs will remain a key factor for global trade.
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