Russia will be able to fight through 2026 - Western assessment

Western officials believe Russia will be able to fight by 2026

Russia is capable of continuing the war against Ukraine until at least 2026, even despite the growing loss of personnel. This assessment, according to Western officials, is cited by Bloomberg.

In their view, this is possible due to a combination of factors: constant military recruitment, the work of the defence industry, and support from individual states, including China.

The scale of the Russian army's losses

According to Western officials, in 2025 Russia could lose about 415,000 killed and wounded, which is only slightly less than in 2024 (approximately 430 thousand).

The total losses of the Russian Federation for the entire period of the full-scale war, according to these estimates, have already exceeded 1.2 million people.

In December, the average daily losses of Russian troops were about 1130 people, and menstruation is approximately 35 thousand. In January, the rate of losses, according to NATO estimates, exceeded the rate of recruitment of new volunteers.

Reasons for the increase in losses

The increase in Russian army losses is attributed, in particular, to the improvement of Ukrainian drones and their effectiveness on the battlefield.

This increases the pressure on Moscow's ability to quickly replenish personnel without a new large-scale mobilisation.

Dependence on foreign fighters

UK Defence Secretary John Healey said that Russia is increasingly relying on foreign mercenaries.

According to him, people are recruited in a number of countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, sometimes under false promises or pressure, without always explaining the real conditions of service at the front in Ukraine.

In addition, according to the British side, the following could have been involved in the war on the side of Russia about 17 thousand military personnel from North Korea.

Ukraine's plans and the pace of the Russian offensive

Ukraine expects to increase the average monthly losses of Russian troops to 50 thousand people, This could make it harder for the Kremlin to replenish the army without a new mobilisation.

At the same time, despite significant resources, the advance of Russian troops at the front remains slow. According to Western officials, at the current pace, Moscow may need to about two years, The Russian Federation has been using the "separatists" to fully occupy the eastern part of Donetsk region.