Russia officially threatened Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia with invasion because they provided airspace for Ukrainian UAV attacks on Russian territory. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would take retaliatory measures. The Baltic states are preparing for possible escalation scenarios.
Russia's official statement and the Baltic states' reaction
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, announced the possibility of an invasion of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. He cited the use of Baltic airspace for attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian territory as the reason. The Baltic states condemned the threats and stressed compliance with international law. They also reaffirmed their support for Ukraine.
Possible scenarios for the development of events
Some experts suggest that Russia could launch an aggression as early as 2026. German intelligence reports that Russia is actively deploying military infrastructure to prepare for a potential clash with the West. Bild has published simulations that show Russia could occupy Latvia and part of Lithuania 10 days before a full NATO response. It also considers scenarios of hybrid warfare and the use of drones for provocations.
Measures of the Baltic States
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are counting on NATO's support, in particular Article 5 on collective defence. The countries are already developing plans for mass evacuation. They are also strengthening defence lines and coordinating with NATO allies.
Context.
Russia's threats have arisen against the backdrop of the Baltic states' active support for Ukraine in the war against Russia. Western intelligence agencies have recorded rising tensions and Russia's preparations for a possible conflict with NATO.
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