The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine has once again crossed the 45 hryvnia mark. Last week, the National Bank sold almost $1.1 billion on the foreign exchange market — roughly a quarter more than the week before. This was due to a sharp rise in demand for foreign currency from businesses. ICU analysts expect the regulator to try to keep the exchange rate within the range of 44.5–45 hryvnias per dollar.
Briefly about the main points
- The dollar has once again risen above the 45 hryvnia mark.
- The NBU sold nearly $1.1 billion in foreign currency over the course of the week.
- Business demand for foreign currency has risen sharply.
- ICU estimates the trading range at 44.5–45 UAH per dollar.
- A stronger dollar may affect the cost of imports.
Foreign currency sales rose amid demand from businesses
An increase in interventions means that National Bank This helped to bridge the wider gap between supply and demand for the currency on the market. According to preliminary figures, the regulator sold nearly $1.1 billion over the week, a quarter more than the previous week’s figure.
There is no up-to-date public breakdown of July’s demand by sector. It is therefore currently impossible to determine what proportion of this demand was accounted for by purchases of energy resources, other imported goods or large one-off payments.
The interventions in June were already the highest of the year
According to official data from the NBU, net foreign exchange sales in June amounted to $5.087 billion. This is the highest monthly figure in the series available on the regulator’s website since July 2025. In May, the figure stood at $3.185 billion, meaning the volume increased by approximately 60% over the month.
A high volume of interventions does not mean that reserves are being reduced by the same amount. Their trends are also influenced by international financing, external debt repayments and the revaluation of assets. In its forecasts, the NBU noted that the structural foreign exchange deficit in 2026–2027 is expected to be offset by concessional external financing.
ICU assessment and factors influencing the subsequent course of treatment
ICU analysts believe that the NBU will, for the time being, attempt to keep the exchange rate within the range of 44.5–45 UAH per dollar. This is the analysts’ assessment, not an exchange rate target announced by the National Bank.
If the foreign exchange shortage persists, the hryvnia may continue to weaken gradually. The pace of this trend will be influenced, in particular, by foreign exchange inflows from agricultural exports, the volume of imports, the regularity of foreign aid and the security situation. In its July review, KIT Group also anticipated that a seasonal upturn in agricultural exports could partially support the supply of foreign currency.
The Ministry of Economy recorded a net outflow of $9.142 billion in January–April 2026, whereas for the same period a year earlier there had been a net inflow of $1.887 billion. The ministry attributed the deterioration primarily to the widening of the foreign trade deficit.
Which goods might be affected by a stronger dollar?
Next rise in the dollar exchange rate It may accelerate price rises for goods with a high proportion of imported components — in particular, electrical goods, medicines, fuel and other imported goods. At the same time, a change in the exchange rate does not automatically translate into a corresponding rise in retail prices.
The final price is also influenced by global prices, importers’ stock levels, competition and government regulation in specific segments. Consequently, the extent and speed of price reactions may vary depending on the product group.
