At the current rate of advance, the Russian army will, mathematically speaking, be able to occupy the remainder of Donetsk Oblast no earlier than 2 October 2032, according to calculations by the Institute for the Study of War in its 6 September report. Russia does not control the entire region: approximately 19% remain outside its control. At the same time, analysts do not believe that the capture of the whole of Donetsk Oblast is guaranteed at all.
Briefly about the main points
- Russia does not yet control approximately 19% of the Donetsk region.
- In August, Russian advances in the Donetsk region amounted to 2.36 square kilometres per day.
- The ISW’s projection provides a guide up to 2 October 2032.
- The Russian Federation did not fully capture Kostiantynivka after 11 months of fighting.
- The ISW has described the Kremlin’s aim of occupying the region by the end of 2026 as unrealistic.
The calculation is based on the August movements of the front
In August 2026, Russian troops were capturing an average of 2.36 square kilometres per day in the Donetsk region. Across the entire front, the average was 2.91 square kilometres per day. If the August trend continues, the ISW has calculated that it will take Russia until around the beginning of October 2032.
Analysts caution that this date is a mathematical extrapolation, not a prediction of an inevitable occupation. The pace of hostilities is not constant and depends, amongst other things, on urban combat, local Ukrainian counter-attacks, the resources of the parties involved, and the level of Western support for Ukraine.
The cities of the fortified belt still stand in Russia’s way
The ISW classifies Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk as part of the Donetsk region’s fortified belt. Fighting for Kostiantynivka has been ongoing since October 2025, but Russian forces have not yet managed to fully capture the town.
The Russian army has not yet reached the main parts of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka. An offensive would require protracted, gruelling fighting in large cities, followed by an advance across open terrain, where the Russian army has also encountered difficulties.
Over the past year, the pace of the Russian advance has generally slowed. Ukrainian forces have carried out localised counter-attacks, seized the tactical initiative and struck at Russian logistics.
The Kremlin has failed to meet the previously set deadlines for the occupation of the region
Since the beginning of the full-scale war Putin or the Russian military command has set deadlines for full the occupation of the Donetsk region, the ISW notes. Russia has not achieved any of these objectives.
The Kremlin’s latest stated deadline is 31 December 2026. The Institute for the Study of War considers this scenario unrealistic. Analysts attribute the Russian leadership’s misguided expectations to the systematic exaggeration of battlefield successes in commanders« reports, which are known in the army as »whitewashed reports’.
The ISW points to an attempt to impose a negotiated version of the front line
After meetings Putin with Steve Witkoff і Jared Kushner Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Yuriy Ushakov stated that the Russian leader had told the American delegation about allegedly significant successes on the front line. The ISW considers these claims to be exaggerated and inconsistent with the actual situation.
According to analysts, Putin is attempting to make his own interpretation of the situation on the battlefield the starting point for peace talks. The talks in Moscow lasted around three hours without any clear breakthrough, after which US representatives held meetings in Kyiv with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European advisers.
Moscow is not backing down from its maximalist demands
The ISW believes that the Kremlin is not yet prepared to abandon its maximalist demands. Russia continues its military operations in the Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, which analysts link to Moscow’s broader territorial and political objectives. According to this assessment, even a potential occupation of the entire Donetsk region would not necessarily signify the end of the war.
On 7 September, the Kremlin stated that it did not rule out the resumption of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US. Moscow did not specify the dates or venue for any such talks.
