Ukraine may carry out a large-scale operation against Crimea before the winter season
According to Professor Michael Clarke, a military analyst, Ukraine may prepare for a major strike on Crimea before the onset of winter.
What Clarke said.
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He emphasises that the Ukrainian leadership likes to «arrange surprises» in military operations.
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According to him, there have already been attacks on radar stations and air defence facilities in Crimea, which may pave the way for more actions.
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Clarke also suggested that if Ukraine acquires long-range missiles (e.g. Tomahawks), it could change its ability to hit strategic targets in the rear.
Context and challenges
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Russia has significantly strengthened the defence of Crimea, especially air defence and fortifications.
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Winter conditions (weather, limited mobility, logistics) can deter massive attacks.
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High price of risk: heavy losses and Russia's response.
Possible scenarios
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Air or sea attack - highly mobile vehicles, drones, naval assault groups.
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Missile strikes - from the western or southern directions using long-range weapons.
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A blow to infrastructure - Kerch Bridge, ports, military bases.
