Russia has no plans to end the war in the near future and is already preparing for hostilities until at least 2028. This was stated by Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation, outlining three possible scenarios for the Kremlin.
Baseline scenario: war until 2028
The first and basic scenario, according to the head of the CPD Andriy Kovalenko, The latest report suggests that Russia's war against Ukraine will continue until at least 2028. Russia is relying on a spring-summer offensive and may also resort to partial mobilisation to secure resources to continue fighting for several more years.
Kovalenko notes that the Kremlin sees no reason to end the conflict in the near future and is counting on the exhaustion of Ukrainian resistance. Under this scenario, Russia plans to maintain military pressure and gradually build up its forces.
The second scenario: «freezing» the war
The second possible option is to «freeze» the war and ceasefire. According to Kovalenko, Russia is already forming a narrative according to which the Russian president was allegedly poorly informed about the real the state of affairs at the front.
This scenario implies a temporary cessation of active hostilities, but does not guarantee a lasting peace. The Kremlin could use this pause to regroup its forces and prepare for new actions in the future.
Third scenario: hybrid confrontation with NATO
The third scenario, voiced by Kovalenko, envisages the continuation of the war against Ukraine with a parallel transition to a hybrid confrontation with NATO closer to 2028. Among the potential threats is an escalation of the situation in the Baltic States.
According to the CPJ, the Kremlin may increase information, cyber and other types of pressure on NATO countries, using the war in Ukraine as a tool to destabilise the region.
Official position of Ukraine
The Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented on the Kremlin's statements regarding possible scenarios. At the same time, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly emphasised the need to strengthening international support to counter Russian aggression.
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