Regime change in Iran unlikely even in case of war - US intelligence assessment
Even in the event of a protracted war or a large-scale US military operation, the political regime in Iran is unlikely to be overthrown. This conclusion was made by the US intelligence services, according to The Washington Post with reference to sources in the US government.
US intelligence assessment
According to US intelligence, the domestic opposition in Iran currently does not have sufficient resources, organisation and support to take power even in the event of a serious military defeat.
Analysts note that:
The Iranian political system has a powerful security apparatus;
security forces remain loyal to the government;
Opposition groups are fragmented and do not have a single control centre.
The reports emphasise that even a prolonged military campaign can only weaken the country's economy and infrastructure, but will not necessarily lead to political transformation.
Why the regime in Tehran is resilient
Experts attribute the resilience of the Iranian government to several factors.
Firstly, Iran's political system is structured in such a way that key institutions - security forces, religious bodies and security services - mutually support each other.
Secondly, even in the case of internal protests, the authorities are able to quickly suppress them with the use of force.
Thirdly, the opposition outside the country does not have sufficient influence on the situation inside the country.
Context: escalation in the Middle East
The intelligence assessments come amid rising tensions in the Middle East and discussions of a possible expansion of military operations against Iran.
According to US officials, even in the event of an escalation of the conflict, the main goal of the operations may be to contain Tehran's military potential, not to change the government.
Analysts also warn that the fall of the regime in Iran could lead to large-scale instability in the entire region.
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