Ukraine may lose 2.1% of GDP by 2030 due to the introduction of environmental duties CBAM. Total export losses are estimated at $1.75bn. The government calls on the EU to grant a delay for Ukraine.
Economic losses due to CBAM
The introduction of the CBAM environmental duty could result in a loss of 2.1% of Ukraine's GDP by 2030. The total export losses are estimated to be USD 1.4T1.75 billion.
In 2026-2030, Ukrainian companies may pay up to €1.2 billion in CBAM payments. Up to €$2 billion of exports are at risk annually.
The government's position and the need for a delay
The Ukrainian government is negotiating with the European Commission to postpone the implementation of the CBAM for Ukrainian exporters. The reason is critical losses for the economy due to the impossibility of rapid decarbonisation in times of war.
The authorities emphasise that without a delay, the CBAM looks like discrimination against poorer countries that cannot quickly adapt their production.
Additional economic risks
In addition to direct export losses, Ukraine may lose $0.9 billion in investment. Also under threat is 1.6 billion in tax revenues.
Context.
The CBAM is a European environmental duty that is intended to stimulate the decarbonisation of industry. Ukrainian exporters of metallurgy and chemicals will be most affected by the new rules.
Due to the war, Ukraine is unable to implement low-carbon technologies quickly, so the government insists on a delay.
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