Between 1 and 13 August, Ukraine exported 790.7 thousand tonnes of agricultural produce, which is 57.2% less than during the corresponding period in July, according to the brokerage firm Spike Brokers. The value of exports fell by 37.3% to $478.8 million. The decline is attributed to Russian shelling and increased risks to maritime shipping.
Briefly about the main points
- The physical volume of agricultural exports has more than halved.
- The value of the deliveries amounted to $478.8 million, down by 37.3%.
- Grain shipments to the ports of Odessa fell by 88.5%.
- The number of grain wagons passing through the western crossings has increased, whilst more than 8,700 wagons have built up on the approach lines.
- Potential lost revenue exceeds €10.8 billion.
Grain shipments to the ports of Odesa have fallen the most
The sharpest decline was seen in rail shipments of grain to the ports of Odesa: the volume fell by 88.5% — from 656.4 thousand tonnes to 75.2 thousand tonnes. The decline in sea shipments was one of the main factors behind the overall fall in agricultural exports.
The problem is systemic in nature. According to the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, the ports of Greater Odesa came under more than 180 Russian attacks in the first few months of 2026. At peak times, this reduced their export capacity by 20–30%.
Land routes carry more freight, but do not make up for sea transport
Road exports of agricultural produce rose by 8.9% to reach 130.1 thousand tonnes. The largest increases were recorded on routes to Hungary — up by 32.9% — and Slovakia — up by 28%. The transit of grain wagons through western border crossings increased by 96%; the additional volume was primarily directed towards Romania and Poland. At the same time, more than 8.7 thousand wagons had accumulated on the approaches to the western borders.
The trend in vegetable oil shipments differed from that of grain logistics. Rail shipments of this product in the first half of August totalled around 41.5 thousand tonnes, which is 0.9% more than in the previous comparable period. A total of 89% of vegetable oil was exported via land border crossings.
According to the Council of the EU, 90% passed through the Black Sea Corridor in June 2026 Ukrainian grain exports, oilseeds and related goods. Consequently, road and rail routes cannot quickly make up for the reduction in sea freight. According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, due to port blockades and the slowdown in exports, more than half of the harvest planned for the season may remain unsold, and the potential shortfall in export revenue exceeds €10.8 billion.
