CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unannounced visit to Moscow this week, where, according to *The New York Times*, he presented the Kremlin with a harsh assessment of Russia’s position in the war against Ukraine and urged it to give serious consideration to the agreement. US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, stated that he does not expect Russia to attack NATO member states.
Briefly about the main points
- Trump dismissed the risk of a Russian attack on NATO countries.
- Retcliffe made the first known visit by a serving CIA director to Russia since the invasion.
- Russia has seized around 1% of Ukraine’s territory in approximately 18 months, according to the CIA director’s assessment.
- Kyiv has been assured that the US will not agree to any concessions on its behalf.
Trump described the mission as «semi-routine»
27 August Donald Trump publicly dismissed concerns that Vladimir Putin could order an attack on one of the NATO member states. «He has no intention of attacking NATO territory,» said the US President. In comments to Axios, Trump also stated that he was not concerned about such a scenario.
These words were spoken against the backdrop of messages reports in the American media regarding intelligence assessments suggesting that Moscow could, in theory, test the Alliance’s resolve through a limited provocation or other actions against the US’s European allies. On the same day, Russia threatened possible strikes against British military facilities in response to Ukraine’s use of British long-range weapons.
Trump described the trip Retcliffe as «semi-routine» and denied that its main aim was to send a warning to Moscow regarding NATO. According to him, the US would like to see an end to the war in Ukraine.
An assessment of the war was passed on to the Kremlin via the intelligence services
Retcliffe’s visit was the first known mission by a serving CIA director to Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion and the first such visit since 2021. The New York Times reported that the head of US intelligence brought to Moscow an assessment of Russia’s military and economic situation that was grim for the Kremlin.
According to the publication, the US side called on the Russian leadership to give serious consideration to the possibility of a deal before the situation deteriorates further. One of the arguments put forward was Retcliffe’s assessment: in approximately 18 months, Russia had seized around 1% of Ukraine’s total territory. He attributed the slowing of the advance to the effectiveness of Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems.
CIA analysts also doubt that Putin is receiving accurate information from his inner circle about the course of the war, casualties and the state of Russian forces, according to the NYT. US officials had hoped that a direct message via intelligence channels would carry greater weight with him.
Retcliffe’s main contact was the director of the FSB Oleksandr Bortnikov. Head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin confirmed to Reuters that he had held a «working-level» meeting with him. Putin did not meet the CIA director in person, but the Kremlin confirmed that the president had been briefed on the substance of the discussions.
Retcliffe assured Kyiv of concessions on behalf of Ukraine
Before his visit to Moscow, Retcliffe was in contact with his Ukrainian counterparts and, according to the NYT, assured them that he would not agree to any concessions on Ukraine’s behalf. The aim of the mission was to ascertain Russia’s position and convey the US assessment of the situation.
The intelligence channel operates separately from the contacts that representatives of the Trump administration are maintaining with Russia. The US is attempting to resume the negotiation process regarding Ukraine. In Kyiv, officials are open to the possibility of a new round of talks involving Ukraine, Russia and the US as early as September.
