Units of the Russian Armed Forces« 101st Missile Brigade, which is equipped with the »Oreshnik’ medium-range missile system, are stationed in Belarus, according to Oleg Ivashchenko, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence. At the same time, Ukrainian military intelligence has not detected any preparations by Belarus to enter the war directly and assesses the threat of an offensive from this direction as low.
Briefly about the main points
- Units of the Russian Federation’s 101st Missile Brigade are stationed in Belarus.
- The brigade is equipped with the «Oreshnik» missile system.
- The Main Intelligence Directorate does not see any strike force poised to launch an attack on Ukraine.
- Intelligence sources claim that relay stations in Belarus are being used to guide Shahed drones.
- The Kremlin may continue to build up its military presence in the country.
The Main Intelligence Directorate reports on relays for guiding Shahed drones
Ivashchenko said that Ukrainian intelligence is monitoring Moscow’s attempts to draw Minsk deeper into the war. In his view, Russia is seeking to use Belarus’s territory and military resources to expand its own capabilities against Ukraine.
Separately, the Main Intelligence Directorate has identified the deployment of radio signal repeaters. According to intelligence reports, these are being used to guide Russian Shahed strike drones towards Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure targets.
In June, the president Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is aware of four such relay stations in the Gomel and Brest regions. According to him, the equipment was used to facilitate attacks on energy and railway infrastructure, as well as on settlements in the Zhytomyr, Rivne and Volyn regions.
«Oreshnik» has already been used in attacks on Ukraine
«Oreshnik» — a Russian medium-range mobile ballistic missile. The Missile Defence Project at CSIS estimates its range at 3,500–5,470 kilometres and notes that the system can be equipped with several warheads.
The first publicly confirmed strike by a missile of this type took place in Dnipro in November 2024. In January 2026, Russia used the «Oreshnik» again during an attack on Ukraine.
CSIS had previously identified the former Krychev-6 airfield in eastern Belarus as a likely deployment site for the system. This is an assessment by analysts based on satellite data, rather than an officially confirmed location of the GUR units currently mentioned.
Intelligence has not detected any signs of preparations for a ground offensive
Russia’s missile presence does not imply the build-up of forces for a ground invasion, according to an assessment by the Main Intelligence Directorate. «As things stand, there are no signs that Belarus is preparing to enter the war against Ukraine,» said Ivashchenko.
Intelligence reports do not indicate that a strike force is being assembled on Belarusian territory. At the same time, it suggests that the Kremlin will continue to strengthen its military presence there and use the country’s territory to support attacks against Ukraine.
