In early September, during a meeting at the Kremlin with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian troops were allegedly capable of seizing the whole of Donbas within a few months. According to The New York Times, he also made it clear that Moscow was prepared to step up attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the run-up to winter.
Briefly about the main points
- Putin outlined Russia’s plans for the whole of the Donbas to Trump’s representatives.
- The NYT reported that Moscow is prepared to step up its attacks on the energy sector.
- Kushner pointed out that the Kremlin’s forecast from last year had not materialised.
- Reuters describes the status of the Donbas as a key issue in US mediation efforts.
- The ISW considers the deadlines announced by the Kremlin to be unrealistic.
Kushner recalled Moscow’s previous predictions
Jared Kushner did not agree with certainty Putin, reports NYT citing an American official and a source familiar with the progress of the negotiations. He pointed out that Moscow had already made similar statements about a year ago, but Russian troops had failed to establish control over the whole of Donbas.
According to the publication, Kushner asked whether there was any point in waiting another year if the Russian side might simply repeat the same claims again. This exchange directly contradicted the assessments the Russian president had put forward to the American representatives.
The Donbas remains a key topic of the talks
Moscow is demanding territories that its army does not yet control, whilst Ukraine refuses agree to their transfer. The status of the Donbas remains a key unresolved issue in US mediation efforts.
Before September visit A source close to the Kremlin told Vitkoff and Kushner that the remainder of the Donetsk region could be captured by the end of 2026. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Kremlin might have been receiving various estimates — ranging from a few months to one and a half to two years.
On 15 September, Ukrmedia reported on Ukrainian offensive operations in the north of the Donetsk region and the recapture of part of the territory. Meanwhile, Russian troops continue to apply pressure on certain fronts.
The ISW does not consider the Kremlin’s deadlines to be realistic
The Institute for the Study of War considers the timelines announced by the Kremlin to be unrealistic given the current rate of advance of the Russian army. According to analysts’ calculations, in August Russian troops advanced in the Donetsk region by an average of approximately 2.36 square kilometres per day.
At this rate, it would take years, rather than a few months, to capture the rest of the region, notes the ISW. The Institute also does not go so far as to claim that Russia will be able to capture the whole of Donetsk Oblast at all. Zelensky He had previously spoken of at least 15 deadlines set by the Russian command for the complete capture of the region, none of which had been met.
Attacks on infrastructure are exacerbating the risks posed by winter
Alongside its ground operations, Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s energy and economic infrastructure. Ukraine is preparing for a harsh winter against the backdrop of an escalation in such attacks.
By 2026, cyber-attacks had already caused billions of dollars’ worth of damage to the country’s infrastructure. They had created additional risks for the energy sector, logistics and exports.
