In Ukraine, there may be delays in certain budget payments, particularly pensions, in October if the state faces a liquidity shortfall due to a delay in international funding. This risk was highlighted by investment banker Serhiy Fursa.
What Serhiy Fursa said
Investment banker Serhiy Fursa believes that Ukraine’s delay in fulfilling some of its obligations to international partners could create liquidity problems for the state budget. 0In his view, should external financing be delayed, the consequences could become apparent as early as in October, in particular when the State is fulfilling its social obligations.
Furs identifies deadlines as one of the potential risks pension payments. This specifically refers to a scenario involving a shortfall in current liquidity, rather than a decision that has been taken to reduce or suspend payments.
Funding from international partners depends on the Council’s decisions
The issue has come to the fore against the backdrop of the need for the Verkhovna Rada to pass a number of bills relating to international financial programmes.
On 15 September, the President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said., which is on the parliamentary agenda seven draft laws, needed to finance the state budget deficit. According to him, a «yes» vote could secure Ukraine ‘billions of dollars’ in funding from its partners.
The European Commission has also explicitly confirmed the link between legislative decisions and payments to Ukraine. In early September, a European Commission spokesperson stated that the next tranche of macro-financial assistance would amount to approximately €3.7 billion depends on the fulfilment of 12 agreed conditions, including legislative changes.
The IMF has already noted delays in the reforms
The issue is not limited to funding from the European Union. In its July report, the IMF noted that Ukraine had met the programme’s key quantitative criteria, but that the implementation of structural reforms had slowed: some milestones were met late, whilst others were not met within the set deadlines.
At the same time, following the first review of the new EFF programme, the IMF approved a disbursement to Ukraine of approximately $690 million, and the parties agreed on an updated timetable for further reforms. The Fund specifically emphasises the need to align budgetary expenditure with available funding and to avoid creating new unfunded liabilities for the Pension Fund.
The Ukrainian budget is heavily reliant on foreign aid
The extent to which the budget depends on external support is evident from data from the Ministry of Finance.
Between January and August 2026, the general fund of the state budget received almost 2.3 trillion UAH, of which International grant aid totalled 569.6 billion hryvnias. A further $7 billion or so was raised from external sources in the form of funding. The EU continues to transfer substantial sums to Ukraine. In the context of Ukraine Facility The state has already received more than €29.5 billion, and payments under the programme are directly linked to the implementation of agreed reforms and indicators.
The World Bank also remains one of the key channels for budgetary support. As at the end of August, approximately had been mobilised for Ukraine through the Bank’s various instruments $91 billion, including the major PEACE project, through which priority public expenditure is funded.
Does this mean that pensions will definitely be delayed in October?
At present, the issue at hand is the risk highlighted by Fursa, rather than the official forecast from the Pension Fund or the government.
Pension payments for September continue to be funded. In particular, as at 11 September, the Pension Fund reported that it had allocated 37.1 billion hryvnia for pensions, of which 31.4 billion hryvnias were transferred via banks and 5.7 billion hryvnias via «Ukrposhta».
The key issue in the coming weeks will therefore be the speed at which the necessary legislative changes are adopted and the planned external funding is received.
