Russia has handed NATO an informal diplomatic note in which it stated its readiness to use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, should Alliance countries attempt to isolate the Kaliningrad region from the rest of the Russian Federation. This was reported on 30 September by Reuters, which had seen the document. NATO confirmed receipt of the document and stated that it had sent a reply.
Briefly about the main points
- Reuters has seen the Russian non-paper forwarded to NATO.
- Moscow has linked the nuclear threat to a scenario involving the isolation of Kaliningrad.
- The document contains a warning about attacks on decision-making centres.
- NATO issued a response and condemned Russia’s nuclear rhetoric.
- The EU is maintaining the transit of goods between Kaliningrad and the rest of the Russian Federation.
What the Russian document contains
According to Reuters, Moscow accused the Alliance of pursuing a «dangerous and reckless course», which, in the Russian side’s view, poses a high risk of direct armed conflict. The document takes the form of a ‘non-paper’ – an informal diplomatic communication.
In the text, Russia also warned of possible strikes against «decision-making centres» in member states NATO from the outset of a potential conflict. The condition regarding the use of «the full range of forces and assets» is linked to NATO countries’ attempt to isolate the Kaliningrad Oblast from the rest of Russia.
NATO has stated that its activities are defensive in nature
NATO spokesperson Allison Hart She confirmed to Reuters that she had received the non-paper and stated that the Alliance had already sent a reply. The Alliance has not publicly disclosed the contents of the Russian document.
NATO has stated that its military activities and exercises are defensive in nature and do not pose a threat to Russian territory. The Alliance has condemned threats to use force, described Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric as irresponsible, and called on Russia to end the war against Ukraine.
Transit to the exclave is not restricted by current EU sanctions
The Kaliningrad Region is situated on the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania, both of which are NATO members. The region is cut off from the rest of Russia and has significant military infrastructure; previous NATO documents have referred to Russian dual-use systems.
At the same time, the current EU restrictions do not apply to postal services or the transit of goods between the Kaliningrad Oblast and the rest of Russia. Consequently, the threat described by Moscow relates to a hypothetical scenario, rather than to the current transit arrangements.
Tensions on NATO’s eastern flank are mounting
Reuters reports that Russian embassies in at least three European countries have in recent days accused NATO of escalation over exercises and scenarios relating to Kaliningrad. Russia denies any intention to attack Alliance member states and rejects accusations of hybrid operations in Europe.
NATO is strengthening its defences on the eastern flank and its response to acts of sabotage, cyber-attacks and airspace violations, which the allies attribute to Russia. On 29 September, the Alliance’s Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, announced the strengthening of air and missile defences and a commitment to defend «every inch» of the allies’ territory.
