Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has stated that on 22 October, Russia plans to send the first tanker carrying 40,000 tonnes of diesel fuel to the US. According to calculations by Vladislav Vlasyuk, the Ukrainian President’s representative on sanctions policy, in approximately three weeks the US could export roughly 100 times more distillate fuel than the volume of the Russian consignment announced.
Briefly about the main points
- Novak announced that 40,000 tonnes of diesel were due to be shipped on 22 October.
- According to Novak, the contract with the American partners is still being finalised.
- The EIA estimates US distillate fuel exports at 1.499 million barrels per day.
- OFAC has authorised certain transactions involving Russian diesel until 7 April 2027.
The flight is still scheduled as planned
21 October Novak announced his intention to send the first tanker with 40,000 tonnes of diesel fuel the following day. According to him, the contract with the American partners is in its final stages; the Russian side has also announced further consignments.
As of 21 October, there had been no confirmation that the vessel had actually set sail. Furthermore, the name of the vessel and the US port of destination had not been disclosed, so the details of the specific voyage have not yet been established.
How Vlasyuk calculated the difference in volumes
Vlasyuk estimated the journey time from Ust-Lugi to US terminals in 2.5–3 weeks. This is his estimate of the route, not confirmed information about the loading port or the route of the announced tanker.
According to the US Energy Information Administration’s four-week average as at 9 October, distillate fuel exports stood at 1.499 million barrels per day. If this rate were to continue, the US could export approximately 3.5–4.2 million tonnes of this product over the next 2.5–3 weeks.
It was on this basis that Vlasyuk estimated that, in a scenario lasting close to three weeks, US exports could be approximately 100 times greater than the stated 40,000 tonnes of Russian cargo. This is a calculation, not a tally of shipments already made.
What a comparison with the US market reveals
The reported 40,000 tonnes are equivalent to approximately 300,000 barrels. Vlasyuk compared this volume with the EIA figure of around 4 million barrels of distillate fuel per day: based on this benchmark, the consignment amounts to less than two hours’ supply to the domestic market.
The EIA statistics cover Distillate Fuel Oil — a broader category that includes diesel fuel. Therefore, these figures do not represent a separate indicator for automotive diesel alone.
Large volumes of US exports do not preclude the import of individual consignments of petroleum products. Trade flows depend on regional demand, fuel specifications, contract terms and logistics.
What transactions did the OFAC licence permit?
On 9 October, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Department of the Treasury issued a general Licence No. 135. It permits certain transactions that would otherwise be restricted by sanctions regimes: the sale, delivery, unloading and import into the US of diesel fuel of Russian origin.
The authorisation is valid until 7 April 2027. However, the licence does not permit the withdrawal of funds from the accounts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Welfare Fund of the Russian Federation or the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation held with US financial institutions.
