The Meat Industry Association forecasts a risk of a pork shortage in Ukraine in 2027 due to losses in the pig population caused by African swine fever. Under this scenario, the purchase price of live pigs could exceed 100 UAH per kilogram. This is a forecast for the live pig market, not the expected retail price of pork.
Briefly about the main points
- ASF is reducing the pig population and may limit the supply of pigs for slaughter.
- The forecast for next week is 72–73 UAH per kilogram of live weight.
- In areas affected by outbreaks, prices may fall temporarily due to a surplus of livestock.
- The livestock population stood at 4.64 million head at the start of September.
- The industry is calling for the registration of the ASF vaccine to be fast-tracked.
Losses to livestock numbers may limit the supply of live fish
The spread of African swine fever leads to the loss of animals, and restoring production takes time and incurs additional costs. If the number of pigs available for slaughter continues to fall, there may be a shortage of live pigs on the market.
At the same time, the situation may vary from region to region. In areas where outbreaks of African swine fever are reported, producers may be more keen to sell their animals, which temporarily increases supply and puts downward pressure on purchase prices.
Purchase prices are expected to be in the range of 72–73 UAH next week
According to the weekly forecast by the Association «The meat industry», from 26 October to 1 November, the average purchase price for live pigs will be 72–73 UAH per kilogram. This is approximately 6%, or 4 UAH per kilogram, higher than the previous week.
Regional prices may fluctuate unevenly: a local surplus of livestock in areas affected by disease outbreaks may keep prices lower, despite the overall weekly forecast.
Statistics show a decline in livestock numbers, particularly on private farms
According to State Statistics Service, As at the start of September, there were 4.64 million pigs in Ukraine — 4% fewer than a year earlier. The sharpest decline was recorded on private farms: their herd size fell by around a quarter, to 1.26 million head.
The decline in the pig population is also affecting related markets. In particular, demand for feed, including grain, is falling, which is creating further problems for the arable farming sector.
The forecast of over 100 UAH relates to live pigs, not retail meat
The estimate that the price may exceed 100 UAH per kilogram relates to the purchase price of live pigs paid by processing companies to producers. It does not mean that pork in supermarkets will cost the same.
The retail price is influenced by the costs of slaughter, processing, transport, storage and distribution. The association has not specified the exact price of pork for consumers in 2027.
The industry is calling for the registration of the ASF vaccine to be fast-tracked
African swine fever affects domestic and wild pigs, but, according to the State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection, it poses no danger to humans. Should an outbreak be confirmed, quarantine and other anti-epizootic measures will be implemented.
Representatives of the meat industry are calling for the vaccine registration process to be speeded up. According to their information, the registration documents for the first vaccine were submitted in January 2025, but field trials in Ukraine have not yet begun. As of 24 October, a shortage and a price exceeding 100 UAH remain a forecast; future trends will depend on the spread of African swine fever, production levels and the rate at which livestock numbers recover.
