The rental property market in Ukraine has seen a dramatic shift in its geographical focus over the past two months. In Kyiv, the number of active flat rental listings has risen by 66%, whilst in Chernivtsi it fell by 65%, in Uzhhorod by 61%, and in Ivano-Frankivsk by 59%. LUN analysts confirm that internal migration has been taking place since mid-August: people are preparing for winter, changing districts or moving to regions they consider safer.
The number of flats is increasing in Kyiv, whilst in the west the opposite is true
LUN compared the number of active property listings in 22 Ukrainian cities as at 1 August and 2 October. In the capital, the number of listings rose gradually, but the trend accelerated in September. In the last week alone, the number of listings in Kyiv increased by a further 5,4%, and 66% in two months.
In the West, the situation is the opposite:
- Chernivtsi — –65%;
- Uzhhorod — –61%;
- Ivano-Frankivsk — –59%;
- Lutsk — –35%;
- Ternopil — –34%;
- Lviv — –22%;
- Rivne — –11%.
Moreover, the trend continued into late September. In just one week, supply in Uzhhorod fell by a further 19.4%, in Lviv by 10.5%, and in Ivano-Frankivsk by 7.6%.
Demand for the event has increased several-fold
Data from OLX Property shows the same trend on the demand side. The biggest increase over the summer was recorded in the Ivano-Frankivsk region: the number of enquiries per advert for a one-bedroom flat to let rose by 372% — roughly from 12 to 55.
In the Khmelnytskyi region, demand rose by 270%; in the Rivne region, by 254%; in the Lviv region by 2,43%, in the Ternopil region by 2,21%, in the Chernivtsi region by 2,18%, and in the Volyn region by 2,01%.
In other words, two processes are taking place simultaneously: in Kyiv, the number of vacant flats is increasing, whilst in the west, the supply of affordable housing is falling against a backdrop of a sharp rise in demand. This is putting ever-greater pressure on prices.
The shelling of Kyiv is having an increasingly significant impact on tenants’ decisions
Back in September, LUN recorded, for the first time in a long while, a noticeable impact of the intensity of Russian attacks on the capital’s rental market. At that time, the average monthly rent in Kyiv fell by approximately 3%. Experts noted that previously the market had adapted much more easily to regular attacks, but their current intensity is already affecting people’s willingness to pay for accommodation in the capital.
The situation escalated in late September and early October
On 30 September, Russia carried out a large-scale attack on Ukraine’s energy sector. Emergency power cuts have occurred in Kyiv and the surrounding region — the first on this scale since spring. The Ukrainian authorities have also warned of the risk of a new winter campaign targeting the energy infrastructure.
The attacks on the bridges were yet another factor
Over the past few days, Russian troops have attacked bridges in Kyiv on several occasions. The following were hit: Southern і Northern bridges across the Dnipro. The damage led to temporary traffic closures and disrupted travel between the right and left banks of the capital. This is particularly problematic for tenants who live on one bank but work on the other.
Therefore, alongside the traditional criteria — price, transport links, neighbourhood and the condition of the property — a property’s self-sufficiency, the availability of a backup power supply, proximity to a shelter and the ability to get to work without having to cross any bridges may play an increasingly important role.
People are preparing for a harsh winter
Head of the LUN Statistics Department Lyudmila Kiryukhina She confirms that internal migration has been taking place since mid-August. According to her, Ukrainians are preparing for winter: some people are changing their homes or neighbourhoods within the capital, whilst others are moving to safer regions. At the same time, the expert cautions against drawing conclusions about a «mass exodus» based solely on statistics from property listings.
Coupled with a sharp fall in supply in Lviv, Uzhhorod, Chernivtsi and Ivano-Frankivsk, and a manifold increase in demand in the western regions, the trend is becoming increasingly clear.
The event is becoming more expensive
The rise in demand is already being reflected in prices. According to Ukrmedia, a one-bedroom flat in Lviv costs on average around 24,900 UAH per month, in Ivano-Frankivsk — 22,600 UAH, in Uzhhorod — already around 31,500 UAH. By way of comparison, the average one-bedroom flat in Kyiv currently costs approximately 17,000 UAH per month.
This creates a situation that was unusual for the pre-war market: rents in some western cities are already higher than those in the capital.
If Russian attacks on Kyiv’s energy and transport infrastructure continue throughout the winter, security considerations may continue to influence the geography of demand. However, the exact scale of future migration will depend primarily on the security situation, the stability of the electricity supply and how the heating season unfolds.
