Russia's federal budget for the first two months of 2026 was reported with a deficit of $69.9 billion. This figure already exceeds the annual target level and is twice as high as the previous estimate of the Russian Ministry of Finance.
The budget deficit exceeded the forecast
According to official data, the federal budget deficit in Russia in January-February 2026 was $69.9 billion. This is almost twice as much as the previous estimate of the Ministry of Finance, which was $43.3 billion, and already exceeds the annual target of $50.5 billion.
According to the published information, the deficit grew much faster than expected by government experts.
Decline in oil and gas revenues
The main reason for the increase in the deficit was oil and gas revenues, which fell to $18.1bn in the first quarter of 2026. This is $45.5% less than in the same period last year.
The decline in revenues from the energy sector has had a significant impact on the budget, as these revenues are key to financing public spending.
Analysts' forecasts for the annual deficit
Analysts in Russia warn that, at the current rate, the budget deficit could exceed the official annual plan by two to three times. The main risk factors remain low Revenues from energy resources and rising government spending.
Further developments in the situation depend on the recovery of oil and gas revenues and cost control.
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