The dollar and euro exchange rates in Ukraine are once again in the spotlight amid new economic risks and analysts' forecasts. Experts warn that the hryvnia will continue to weaken, and the exchange rate may reach new levels in the near future.
Exchange rate in 2026: what is changing and what Ukrainians should expect
In 2026, the dollar and euro exchange rate will remain one of the main economic topics for Ukrainians. In the context of war, dependence on international aid and global economic changes foreign exchange market demonstrates relative stability, but with a gradual upward trend.
Analysts, bankers and international organisations agree on one thing: no sharp collapses are expected, but the hryvnia will continue to devalue slowly.
Current situation: where the exchange rate is now
As of spring 2026:
- dollar: ≈ UAH 43.5-44.5
- euros: ≈ UAH 51.2-52
Fluctuations remain under control thanks to policy NBU and foreign exchange interventions.
USD and EUR exchange rate forecast (2026-2027)
Table of forecasts
| Source. | US dollar (2026) | Euro (2026) | Comment. |
|---|---|---|---|
| State budget of Ukraine | ~45.7 UAH | ~49.4 UAH | base case |
| Bankers | 44-45 UAH | 50-52 UAH | stable market |
| Dragon Capital | up to UAH 45.5 | - | moderate devaluation |
| IMF | ~48.6 UAH | - | long-term forecast |
| ICU | ~44.3 UAH | - | controlled situation |
Most forecasts converge in the range of UAH 44-46 per dollar in 2026
What will happen to the euro
The euro in Ukraine depends not only on the hryvnia, but also on its ratio to the dollar.
- expected rate: 50-52 UAH
- EUR/USD: $1.14-1.19 per euro
This means:
- the euro is more volatile
- may grow faster than the dollar
Why the hryvnia is weakening
Key factors:
1. War
- large budget expenditures
- Imports outweigh exports
2. Dependence on assistance
- foreign currency reserves are formed at the expense of partners
- NBU reserves ≈ $57-60 billion
3. Inflation
- rising prices put pressure on the exchange rate
Course development scenarios
Optimistic
- stable assistance
- NBU control
course: 43-44 UAH/$
Basic (most realistic)
- gradual devaluation
course: 44-46 UAH/$
Negative
- aid cuts
- escalation of the war
course: 47-50 UAH/$ and above
What economists say
- no sudden jumps are expected
- the exchange rate will “creep” up
- The NBU will monitor the situation
By the end of 2026, the dollar could reach around 45 UAH without shocks
What Ukrainians should do
Should I buy foreign currency or not?
In short:
- for preservation - yes
- for speculation - no
The best strategy
- keep part of it in hryvnia
- part - in foreign currency
- do not invest everything in one currency
Dollar or Euro?
| Currency. | Pros. | Cons |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar | stability | less growth |
| Euro | growth potential | instability |
Main risks
- Reduction of Western aid
- escalation of the war
- energy crisis
- global recession
Conclusion.
In 2026, Ukrainians should prepare for a gradual weakening of the hryvnia rather than a collapse.
- dollar: 44-46 UAH
- euros: 50-52 UAH
The main trend is controlled devaluation without sharp shocks.
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