The Russian command may be preparing offensive operations in the Chernihiv region, most likely from within the Bryansk Oblast, according to Andriy Demchenko, a spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service. Reconnaissance units of the Defence Forces are receiving intelligence on the enemy’s possible intentions; however, no large strike force capable of a large-scale incursion near the border has been detected as yet.
Briefly about the main points
- The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine anticipates an increase in Russian military activity in the Chernihiv sector.
- The Bryansk Oblast in Russia is said to be the most likely route.
- There are no signs of a fully-formed group capable of a large-scale invasion.
- Russia may feign an offensive or carry out limited attacks.
- A mandatory evacuation has been in place in 12 border villages since July.
What scenarios are the Defence Forces considering?
According to Andriy Demchenko, the enemy may attempt to expand the area of hostilities and its control within the region. Information regarding such possible plans is coming not only from intelligence, but also from other components of the Defence Forces.
The Ukrainian command is also considering the possibility of using Belarusian territory as a springboard, but regards this as less likely. According to Suspilne, Russian forces may launch limited attacks or simulate a large-scale offensive without having a fully formed strike force in place.
What is happening near the region’s border
Border guards have not recorded any attempts by Russian infantry units or sabotage and reconnaissance groups to infiltrate the Chernihiv region. Certain enemy forces are positioned on Russian territory opposite the region; the Ukrainian military is monitoring their numbers, movements and any potential build-up in that direction.
At the same time border communities are coming under fire almost every day. Russian troops are using artillery, FPV drones, unmanned aerial vehicles capable of dropping munitions, and fibre-optic-controlled drones.
Russia may attempt to tie down Ukrainian reserves
Former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky He had previously stated that the Russian General Staff had drawn up several options for a new offensive operation, including operations in northern Ukraine. In his assessment, the enemy may seek not only to seize territory but also to extend the active front line in order to force Ukraine to redeploy reserves from other areas of combat operations.
Against the backdrop of the security situation, from 1 July, a programme was launched in 12 border villages in the region compulsory evacuation. It was introduced by the Regional Defence Council at the request of the military. Ukrainian forces are considering various scenarios along the northern border and adjusting their defences in line with intelligence reports.
