Russia may continue to carry out regular ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine in August and launch several large-scale combined attacks, according to military analyst Serhiy Misyura. He estimates that six to eight ballistic missiles could be launched every three to four days, whilst major strikes could involve 25–30 missiles.
Briefly about the main points
- Military analyst Serhiy Misyura gave his assessment of the likely frequency of the attacks.
- Localised attacks may alternate with larger-scale combined strikes.
- In July, Russia launched approximately 126 ballistic missiles.
- The claim regarding the warning from US intelligence has not been confirmed.
- During an air-raid alert, you should take shelter and wait for the official all-clear.
The analyst’s assessment was mistakenly attributed to US intelligence
Serhiy Misyura He made this forecast by analysing the nature of the Russian shelling in July. He also suggested that Russia might not launch a major cruise missile attack for at least two weeks, although this does not rule out the use of ballistic missiles and attack drones.
This assessment was circulated on Telegram channels as a purported warning from US intelligence. However, the original source makes no mention of US intelligence agencies, and US authorities have not published any forecasts specifying such a frequency of launches or a specific number of large-scale attacks.
The shelling in July provided the backdrop for the forecast
According to monitoring sources, Russia fired approximately 126 ballistic missiles at Ukraine in July. This is the highest monthly figure since the start of 2026.
On the night of 2 July, the Air Force recorded 570 air attack assets — 74 missiles and 496 drones of various types; the main target was Kyiv. In the night of 30 July Russia deployed 358 weapons, of which 74 were missiles and 284 were drones. Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk and other regions came under attack at that time.
The total number of targets in such combined attacks does not equate to the number of ballistic missiles, as it encompasses various types of missiles and UAVs. Experts had previously estimated Russian ballistic missile production at approximately three units per day; frequent large-scale launches may be depleting stockpiles.
The air-raid siren remains the guiding principle for action
Ballistic missiles are difficult targets for air defence due to their high speed. Some of these weapons can attack a target from above during the terminal phase, whilst the Iskander-M missiles, according to the Head of the Air Force’s Communications Directorate, Yuriy Ignat, capable of manoeuvring and to deploy radar decoys.
It is impossible to predict the exact dates and targets of future strikes based on open-source information. There may be only a matter of minutes between the air-raid alert being sounded and a possible strike, so you should respond to every air-raid alert and remain in shelter until the official all-clear is given.
